Buccaneers @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 11 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff61°F10 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4-5 · Power #14

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

6-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -13.5

✓ TB W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 16–29 SF

✓ SF (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -13.5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -13.5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 13.5-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 27–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 42, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.1 against an average line of 12.9; 41.3 points a game (usually 43.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs CAR 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	31–14	W	O43
Very close	SF vs ARI 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	38–13	W	O40.5
Close	GB vs MIN 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar total & rest	-12.5	37–10	W	O42.5
Close	KC vs TEN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	20–17	L	U45
Close	BUF vs PIT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	38–3	W	U44.5
Close	KC vs DEN 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	27–24	L	O46
Close	TB vs NO 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	0–9	L	U45.5
Close	BAL vs CAR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-12.5	13–3	L	U41.5
Close	KC vs PIT 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-12	42–21	W	O46
Close	PHI vs WSH 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings	-11	21–32	L	O43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLWWW	3-2	60%	2-0	2-1
SF –LLLW	1-3	25%	0-1	1-3

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB UUUOU	1-4	20%	4-5
SF –OUOU	2-2	50%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 38% of games with totals 39–45 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TBlast 9	4-5 44%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
SFlast 9	6-3 67%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TB 6–9 SF SF leads · 15 games since 2002 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.3 →−0.5▼ 0.8#17

SF+7.9 →+5.6▼ 2.3#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

SF better ▶

#18

Defense

SF better ▶

+0.9 #3

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #4

61 plays #23

Pace

Even

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	TB off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #22	15.9 #2	SF
Yards / play	5.00 #21	4.96 #7	SF
EPA / play	−0.02 #14	−0.11 #4	SF
Success rate	38% #29	41% #7	SF

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #3	19.2 #8	SF
Yards / play	6.37 #2	5.54 #26	SF
EPA / play	+0.15 #2	−0.03 #17	SF
Success rate	50% #2	44% #21	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.6 #29	7.1 #16	9.7 #23	3.7 #22	6.4 #14	10.1 #18
SF allowed	3.0 #4	6.7 #13	9.7 #8	3.3 #10	2.9 #1	6.2 #1

SF scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.4 #4	8.7 #8	15.1 #7	4.6 #12	8.3 #3	12.9 #5
TB allowed	4.0 #13	5.6 #9	9.6 #7	4.6 #18	5.1 #13	9.7 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.