Bears @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

3-7 · Power #18

final

Final

Detroit Lions

7-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -8

✓ CHI W

Total

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 22–31 DET

✓ DET (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -8

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDET -8

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -8

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as an 8-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 31–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 48, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 7.9; 46.7 points a game (usually 47.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR vs SEA 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	20–10	W	U47
Very close	BUF vs DEN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	22–24	L	U47
Very close	GB vs PHI 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-8.5	30–16	W	U50
Very close	PHI vs NYG 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-8	38–7	W	U48
Very close	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5
Very close	SF vs ATL 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.5	31–13	W	U48
Very close	GB vs WSH 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.5	24–10	W	U48
Very close	MIA vs NE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–17	W	O46.5
Very close	SF vs MIA 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread	-8	17–43	L	O50.5
Very close	IND vs CIN 2020 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	31–27	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI LWLLL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3
DET –WLWW	3-1	75%	1-0	3-0

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UOUPU	2-3-1	40%	3-7
DET –UOUO	2-2	50%	7-2

Went over in Q4. Of 9 earlier overs in games with totals 45–51, 11% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	3-7 30%	2-4 33%	2-3-1 40%
DETlast 9	7-2 78%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 28–26 DET CHI leads · 54 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−5.2 →−3.0▲ 2.2#26

DET+1.7 →+3.8▲ 2.1#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

CHI

Longer bar = better

DET

#17

Offense

DET better ▶

#21

Defense

DET better ▶

#16

−0.9 #32

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.1 #11

64 plays #16

Pace

DET faster ▶

69 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #19	22.6 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.07 #18	5.24 #17	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.06 #10	DET
Success rate	44% #10	43% #18	CHI

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #6	25.5 #27	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #4	5.26 #18	DET
EPA / play	+0.06 #6	+0.02 #27	DET
Success rate	46% #6	42% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	3.7 #20	7.7 #12	11.4 #15	3.2 #27	5.8 #20	9.0 #23
DET allowed	3.0 #5	7.2 #17	10.2 #10	5.0 #22	6.7 #20	11.7 #25

DET scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.8 #4	8.7 #7	15.4 #6	3.9 #20	7.4 #7	11.3 #12
CHI allowed	5.5 #22	7.5 #18	13.0 #25	6.2 #27	6.3 #18	12.5 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.