Cardinals @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

2-8 · Power #28

final

Final

Houston Texans

5-4 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -5.5

✓ ARI W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 23–28 HOU

✓ HOU (70%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -5.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHOU -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -5.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 5.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 21–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 48, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 5.8; 47.8 points a game (usually 47.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LV vs CHI 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	9–20	L	U46
Very close	ARI vs PHI 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	33–26	W	O49.5
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Very close	CIN vs LV 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-6	26–19	W	U49
Close	ARI vs SEA 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	30–38	L	O48.5
Close	MIN vs NYG 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	27–24	L	O48.5
Close	ATL vs DEN 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	34–27	W	O50
Close	LAC vs LV 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	24–17	W	U49
Close	DET vs LV 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	26–14	W	U46
Close	TEN vs CHI 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	24–17	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI LLWLW	3-3	50%	1-3	3-3
HOU –WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UUOUO	2-4	33%	2-8
HOU –UUOO	2-2	50%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 43% of games with totals 45–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	2-8 20%	3-3 50%	2-4 33%
HOUlast 9	5-4 56%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 3–4 HOU HOU leads · 7 games since 2005 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−0.4 →−3.8▼ 3.4#30

HOU−2.2 →+1.0▲ 3.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ARI

Longer bar = better

HOU

#26

Offense

HOU better ▶

#12

#27

Defense

HOU better ▶

#18

−0.3 #20

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+0.4 #7

61 plays #24

Pace

HOU faster ▶

65 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	ARI off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	17.6 #25	21.3 #16	HOU
Yards / play	4.85 #24	5.32 #21	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #28	−0.01 #21	HOU
Success rate	40% #26	43% #13	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #10	26.3 #28	HOU
Yards / play	5.72 #7	5.29 #20	HOU
EPA / play	+0.03 #10	+0.05 #31	HOU
Success rate	41% #22	46% #30	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	3.5 #22	8.1 #9	11.6 #14	3.3 #26	2.7 #31	6.0 #31
HOU allowed	5.8 #27	3.3 #1	9.1 #4	6.6 #30	5.7 #13	12.2 #26

HOU scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.6 #14	6.8 #16	11.3 #16	4.6 #9	8.2 #3	12.8 #6
ARI allowed	4.4 #18	7.5 #18	11.9 #17	5.4 #24	9.0 #31	14.4 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.