Giants @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sun, Nov 19, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Washington Commanders · Division game

Weather at kickoff57°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

New York Giants

2-8 · Power #30

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

4-6 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

WSH -7.5

✓ NYG W

Total

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

NYG 20–27 WSH

✗ WSH (74%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWSH -7.5

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWSH -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWSH -7.5

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 7.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NYG won 31–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 39, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.9 against an average line of 6.9; 41.7 points a game (usually 47.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs CHI 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	29–27	L	O40
Very close	ATL vs DET 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	20–16	L	U42.5
Very close	MIA vs NYG 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	20–9	W	U39.5
Very close	SEA vs CHI 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	24–25	L	O41
Very close	CHI vs NYG 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	29–3	W	U36.5
Close	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5
Close	GB vs LAR 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	24–12	W	U40
Close	ATL vs ARI 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	20–19	L	U40.5
Close	JAX vs HOU 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-6	16–30	L	O40
Close	NE vs NYJ 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	54–13	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG WWPLL	2-2-1	50%	1-2	2-2-1
WSH WLPWW	5-4-1	56%	0-3-1	0-3

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG UUUUO	1-4	20%	2-8
WSH UUOUO	4-4	50%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 11 earlier overs in games with totals 36–42, 55% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	2-8 20%	2-2-1 50%	1-4 20%
WSH	4-6 40%	5-4-1 56%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NYG 32–21 WSH (2 tied) NYG leads · 55 games since 1999

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2023	Washington Commanders 7 @ New York Giants 14	WSH -3.5	NYG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−9.1 →−5.9▲ 3.2#32

WSH+0.4 →−3.2▼ 3.6#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NYG

Longer bar = better

WSH

#32

Offense

WSH better ▶

#18

#28

Defense

Even

#25

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

−0.2 #16

65 plays #12

Pace

Even

65 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: WSH defense

	NYG off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	11.8 #32	27.4 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.02 #32	5.78 #28	Even
EPA / play	−0.23 #32	+0.05 #30	Even
Success rate	38% #31	42% #11	WSH

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #17	26.6 #29	WSH
Yards / play	5.18 #16	5.92 #30	WSH
EPA / play	−0.05 #19	+0.02 #25	WSH
Success rate	41% #20	45% #26	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	0.9 #32	3.3 #31	4.2 #32	3.7 #22	3.9 #29	7.6 #27
WSH allowed	5.7 #26	8.7 #28	14.4 #30	3.4 #10	9.3 #32	12.7 #28

WSH scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.6 #21	6.1 #19	9.7 #22	4.5 #11	7.5 #6	12.0 #7
NYG allowed	6.1 #29	9.2 #30	15.3 #32	6.3 #28	4.7 #9	11.0 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.