Eagles @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Mon, Nov 20, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff44°F12 mphgusts 21Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

8-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

7-2 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

KC -2

✓ PHI W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 23–25 KC

✗ KC (57%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -2

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -2

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 2-point home favorite against PHI, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 21–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 2.7; 51.1 points a game (usually 45.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB vs LAR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-1	36–28	W	O46.5
Close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar total & season form	-3	24–27	L	O47
Close	KC vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-2	23–20	W	U48.5
Close	SF vs BUF 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	24–34	L	O48
Close	BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-3	19–17	L	U47.5
Close	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Close	TB vs LAR 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-3	27–30	L	O48
Close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Close	LAR vs ARI 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	34–11	W	U48.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & team ratings	-3.5	19–12	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI –LWPW	2-2-1	50%	0-1-1	—
KC –WWLW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: PHI away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI –UUOO	3-2	60%	8-1
KC –UOUU	1-3	25%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 42% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 9	8-1 89%	2-2-1 50%	3-2 60%
KClast 9	7-2 78%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PHI 6–4 KC PHI leads · 10 games since 2001 · PHI has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI0.0 →+3.8▲ 3.8#6

KC−1.7 →+4.0▲ 5.7#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

PHI

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#18

Defense

KC better ▶

−0.2 #20

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #23

69 plays #2

Pace

◀ PHI faster

64 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #3	15.9 #2	Even
Yards / play	5.50 #11	4.78 #5	KC
EPA / play	+0.09 #4	−0.11 #5	Even
Success rate	47% #6	40% #5	Even

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #11	21.7 #17	KC
Yards / play	5.74 #7	5.27 #18	KC
EPA / play	+0.06 #7	−0.01 #19	KC
Success rate	46% #7	43% #18	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	6.2 #5	7.6 #12	13.8 #8	7.2 #3	6.7 #11	13.9 #4
KC allowed	2.2 #2	5.4 #7	7.7 #3	3.2 #10	5.0 #12	8.2 #7

KC scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	5.2 #11	12.0 #1	17.2 #2	3.8 #21	2.1 #32	5.9 #32
PHI allowed	3.4 #9	8.6 #28	12.0 #19	1.9 #2	7.8 #29	9.7 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.