Chiefs @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sun, Nov 26, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Las Vegas Raiders · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

7-3 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

5-6 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

KC -9

✓ KC W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 27–18 LV

✓ KC (80%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -9

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -9

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 9-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 42.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 8.5; 54.2 points a game (usually 47). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO @ PHI 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-8	21–24	L	O42.5
Very close	BUF @ CHI 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9	35–13	W	O40.5
Very close	KC @ DEN 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	34–28	L	O44
Close	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Close	TEN @ HOU 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	28–25	L	O42.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-7	38–31	P	O42.5
Close	KC @ DEN 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	28–24	L	O44.5
Close	SF @ LV 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar total & situation	-10	37–34	L	O41.5
Close	DAL @ WSH 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	6–26	L	U41
Close	LAR @ WSH 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	30–10	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WWLWL	3-2	60%	0-1	2-2
LV LLWWW	6-5	55%	4-1	2-3

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOUUU	1-4	20%	7-3
LV OUUUU	1-9	10%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 22 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 18% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	7-3 70%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
LV	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	1-8 11%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 36–19 LV KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC−1.7 →+4.1▲ 5.8#4

LV0.0 →−3.2▼ 3.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

◀ KC better

#24

Defense

◀ KC better

#17

−0.5 #23

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−0.6 #31

65 plays #10

Pace

◀ KC faster

59 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #14	20.5 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.60 #8	5.30 #19	KC
EPA / play	+0.04 #9	−0.04 #14	KC
Success rate	44% #10	44% #23	KC

When LV has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LV off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #26	16.4 #3	KC
Yards / play	4.74 #27	4.74 #4	KC
EPA / play	−0.14 #28	−0.10 #5	KC
Success rate	43% #13	40% #4	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	5.4 #10	11.8 #1	17.2 #2	3.4 #22	1.9 #32	5.3 #32
LV allowed	4.8 #17	7.0 #17	11.8 #18	4.9 #21	3.7 #3	8.6 #8

LV scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.6 #14	5.4 #23	10.0 #21	1.7 #32	5.1 #22	6.8 #30
KC allowed	2.7 #3	4.9 #5	7.6 #3	3.6 #12	5.2 #12	8.8 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.