Chiefs @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sun, Dec 3, 2023, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff30°F7 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

8-3 · Power #5

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

5-6 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -6

✓ GB W

Total

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 26–20 GB

✗ KC (71%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -6

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -6

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 6-point road favorite at GB, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 27–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 44, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 6.3; 49.7 points a game (usually 47.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ NE 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	24–10	W	U44
Very close	GB @ BAL 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	31–30	L	O44.5
Very close	NO @ CAR 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	33–7	W	U47
Very close	BAL @ NYG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	20–24	L	U45.5
Very close	SF @ ATL 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	14–28	L	U46.5
Very close	SEA @ WSH 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	20–15	L	U44
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Very close	BAL @ NE 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	17–23	L	U44
Very close	NE @ MIA 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6	24–33	L	O41
Very close	DAL @ JAX 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	34–40	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWLW	4-2	67%	1-1	3-2
GB LWLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; GB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OUUUO	2-4	33%	8-3
GB UUOUO	2-5	29%	5-6

Went over in Q4. Of 24 earlier overs in games with totals 41–47, 8% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	8-2 80%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
GB	4-6 40%	4-3 57%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 3–4 GB GB leads · 7 games since 2003 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC−1.7 →+4.3▲ 6.0#4

GB+5.2 →−0.8▼ 6.0#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ KC better

#15

Defense

◀ KC better

#15

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

GB better ▶

0.0 #17

65 plays #13

Pace

◀ KC faster

61 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #10	20.4 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.65 #8	5.17 #14	KC
EPA / play	+0.06 #6	−0.02 #18	KC
Success rate	45% #7	44% #20	KC

When GB has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	GB off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #19	16.5 #3	KC
Yards / play	5.34 #13	4.87 #8	KC
EPA / play	0.00 #13	−0.09 #5	KC
Success rate	42% #16	39% #3	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.9 #12	12.0 #1	16.9 #3	3.7 #22	2.6 #32	6.4 #32
GB allowed	4.8 #21	6.5 #14	11.3 #15	4.2 #16	4.9 #9	9.1 #11

GB scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	3.6 #22	3.8 #31	7.5 #27	7.6 #2	5.9 #16	13.5 #5
KC allowed	3.1 #6	5.1 #6	8.2 #3	3.5 #11	4.7 #8	8.3 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.