Bills @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2023)

Sun, Dec 10, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff43°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

6-6 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

8-4 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

KC -2

✓ BUF W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 24–26 KC

✗ KC (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -2

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–4 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -2

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 2-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 49, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 2.5; 54.7 points a game (usually 45.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	KC vs PHI 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	17–21	L	U46.5
Very close	GB vs LAR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	36–28	W	O46.5
Very close	TB vs KC 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2	31–41	L	O47.5
Very close	KC vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-2	23–20	W	U48.5
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	34–11	W	U48.5
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	24–27	L	O47
Very close	ARI vs IND 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	16–22	L	U48
Very close	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Very close	BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	19–17	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LLLWL	3-6	33%	1-3	0-2
KC LWLWL	4-3	57%	2-1	3-3

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF UUUUO	2-5	29%	6-6
KC UUUOO	3-4	43%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 47% of games with totals 46–52 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	5-5 50%	2-6 25%	2-5 29%
KC	7-3 70%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 12–11 KC BUF leads · 23 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF−1.0 →+3.0▲ 4.0#7

KC−1.7 →+3.8▲ 5.5#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

BUF

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ BUF better

#11

Defense

KC better ▶

+0.1 #16

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−0.5 #26

65 plays #11

Pace

Even

64 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #5	17.3 #3	Even
Yards / play	5.90 #4	4.97 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.13 #3	−0.06 #11	BUF
Success rate	50% #2	40% #6	Even

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #11	18.9 #5	BUF
Yards / play	5.64 #8	5.26 #18	KC
EPA / play	+0.07 #6	−0.06 #9	Even
Success rate	45% #7	42% #13	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.2 #18	8.8 #5	13.0 #9	5.1 #8	9.0 #1	14.1 #3
KC allowed	3.4 #8	5.3 #6	8.7 #5	3.8 #13	4.8 #9	8.7 #7

KC scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.8 #12	11.3 #3	16.0 #3	3.9 #20	3.0 #32	6.9 #29
BUF allowed	5.2 #24	4.5 #3	9.7 #8	1.6 #1	6.7 #21	8.3 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.