Cowboys @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Buffalo Bills

Weather at kickoff50°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

10-3 · Power #3

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

7-6 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

✓ BUF W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 26–28 BUF

✓ BUF (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -2.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -2.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 2.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 31–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 49, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 2.5; 53 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLE vs ARI 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	14–37	L	O48.5
Very close	BUF vs BAL 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–3	W	U50
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	TB vs KC 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	31–41	L	O47.5
Very close	PHI vs MIN 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	24–7	W	U49.5
Very close	BUF vs LAR 2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–32	W	O46.5
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5
Close	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Close	BUF vs PIT 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-2	26–15	W	U48.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-2	17–20	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WWWLW	6-2	75%	2-1	0-1
BUF LLWLW	4-6	40%	2-3	3-4

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OUOOU	5-3	63%	10-3
BUF UUUOU	2-6	25%	7-6

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 47% of games with totals 46–52 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	8-2 80%	6-2 75%	5-3 63%
BUF	5-5 50%	2-6 25%	2-6 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 3–3 BUF Series tied · 6 games since 2003 · BUF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+9.1 →+6.4▼ 2.7#2

BUF−1.0 →+3.3▲ 4.3#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

DAL

Longer bar = better

BUF

Offense

Even

Defense

◀ DAL better

#13

+0.8 #3

Turnovers

◀ DAL better

+0.2 #13

67 plays #3

Pace

◀ DAL faster

66 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #1	18.8 #5	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #6	5.28 #18	DAL
EPA / play	+0.11 #4	−0.06 #9	DAL
Success rate	47% #5	43% #18	DAL

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #5	17.9 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.77 #5	4.90 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #3	−0.14 #2	Even
Success rate	49% #2	42% #12	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	8.3 #1	11.5 #1	19.8 #1	3.8 #22	8.8 #1	12.5 #7
BUF allowed	4.8 #21	4.7 #3	9.5 #8	2.0 #2	6.4 #21	8.4 #7

BUF scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.4 #16	8.7 #6	13.1 #8	4.9 #10	8.5 #2	13.5 #4
DAL allowed	3.3 #7	6.3 #13	9.6 #9	4.6 #18	3.7 #2	8.3 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.