Giants @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New York Giants

5-8 · Power #30

final

Final

New Orleans Saints

6-7 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

NO -6

✓ NO W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

NYG 20–26 NO

✓ NO (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -6

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNO -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -6

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 6-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 24–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 39.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 6.4; 44.3 points a game (usually 46.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO vs CAR 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-5.5	28–6	W	U38.5
Very close	NO vs CHI 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–17	W	P41
Very close	PIT vs CHI 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	29–27	L	O40
Very close	JAX vs TEN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	34–14	W	O40
Very close	MIA vs NYG 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	20–9	W	U39.5
Very close	PIT vs ARI 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	10–24	L	U41
Very close	CLE vs NYJ 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	30–31	L	O39.5
Very close	LAC vs LAR 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	31–10	W	P41
Very close	CIN vs CAR 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	42–21	W	O42.5
Very close	JAX vs TEN 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	20–16	L	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG LLWWW	5-2-1	71%	2-2	5-2-1
NO WLLLW	3-5	38%	2-2	3-4

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG UOOUO	3-5	38%	5-8
NO POUOU	4-3-1	57%	6-7

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 47% of games with totals 36.5–42.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	4-6 40%	5-2-1 71%	3-5 38%
NO	4-6 40%	3-5 38%	4-3-1 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYG 6–10 NO NO leads · 16 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−9.1 →−5.2▲ 3.9#32

NO+0.8 →+0.4▼ 0.4#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

NYG

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

NO better ▶

#18

#25

Defense

NO better ▶

+0.5 #8

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #9

62 plays #20

Pace

NO faster ▶

67 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	NYG off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	14.1 #31	20.1 #10	NO
Yards / play	4.32 #31	5.11 #12	NO
EPA / play	−0.20 #31	−0.09 #6	NO
Success rate	38% #30	39% #3	NO

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #16	24.2 #25	NO
Yards / play	5.05 #22	5.64 #29	NO
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	−0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	43% #15	44% #25	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	1.2 #32	4.2 #31	5.4 #32	3.9 #20	4.8 #25	8.7 #25
NO allowed	5.2 #26	7.0 #17	12.2 #21	1.9 #1	5.9 #14	7.8 #4

NO scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.1 #21	6.5 #17	10.5 #18	4.9 #9	6.5 #15	11.4 #12
NYG allowed	5.5 #28	7.8 #23	13.2 #27	5.8 #28	4.8 #7	10.7 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.