Commanders @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff76°F0 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

4-9 · Power #32

final

Final

Los Angeles Rams

6-7 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAR -6.5

✓ LAR W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 22–29 LAR

✓ LAR (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -6.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAR -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -6.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 6.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 28–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 6.5; 45.6 points a game (usually 47.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIN vs DAL 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & rest	-7	28–31	L	O50
Very close	DAL vs DET 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–6	W	U49.5
Very close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Very close	ARI vs PHI 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	33–26	W	O49.5
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Very close	GB vs MIN 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	22–28	L	O48
Close	DET vs LV 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-7	26–14	W	U46
Close	LAC vs LV 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	24–17	W	U49
Close	LAC vs JAX 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-7.5	39–29	W	O48
Close	LV vs CHI 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	9–20	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WWLLL	5-7-1	42%	5-2	5-3-1
LAR LLWWW	4-4	50%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH UOOOO	7-4	64%	4-9
LAR UUOOO	4-4	50%	6-7

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 43% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%
LAR	5-5 50%	4-4 50%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 7–7 LAR Series tied · 14 games since 2000 · LAR has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.4 →−4.8▼ 5.2#31

LAR+7.8 →+0.8▼ 7.0#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

WSH

Longer bar = better

LAR

#21

Offense

LAR better ▶

#10

#28

Defense

LAR better ▶

#19

−0.8 #32

Turnovers

LAR better ▶

−0.1 #18

66 plays #10

Pace

◀ WSH faster

64 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #23	22.3 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.13 #18	5.28 #17	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	0.00 #23	Even
Success rate	42% #18	43% #15	Even

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #10	30.4 #32	LAR
Yards / play	5.48 #9	6.01 #31	LAR
EPA / play	+0.03 #9	+0.09 #32	LAR
Success rate	44% #10	43% #17	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.0 #24	6.5 #17	9.5 #25	4.3 #18	6.3 #16	10.6 #18
LAR allowed	5.1 #27	6.7 #15	11.8 #17	3.3 #7	6.8 #23	10.1 #13

LAR scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.6 #13	7.1 #11	11.7 #11	4.2 #19	6.7 #12	10.8 #16
WSH allowed	6.8 #32	9.3 #30	16.1 #32	3.2 #5	10.9 #32	14.1 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.