49ers @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2023)

Sun, Dec 17, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Arizona Cardinals · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

10-3 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Arizona Cardinals

3-10 · Power #28

final

Closing spread

SF -12

✓ SF W

Total

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 31–19 ARI

✓ SF (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -12

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -12

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -12

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 12-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 45–29; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 12.3; 43.9 points a game (usually 43.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF @ NYJ 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-12.5	45–17	W	O48.5
Very close	TB @ NYG 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-12.5	25–23	L	O47
Close	TB @ NYJ 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar total & season form	-13	28–24	L	O47.5
Close	BUF @ JAX 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings	-13	6–9	L	U48.5
Close	ARI @ DET 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	12–30	L	U48
Close	PHI @ HOU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-13	29–17	L	O45.5
Close	DAL @ CAR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-11	33–10	W	U43.5
Close	PIT @ JAX 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-10.5	27–3	W	U47.5
Close	KC @ HOU 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-14	30–24	L	O48
Close	TB @ ATL 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-10	30–17	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WLWWL	3-5	38%	3-2	3-5
ARI LWWLW	5-4	56%	2-1	5-4

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF UUOOU	4-4	50%	10-3
ARI UOUOU	3-6	33%	3-10

Went over in Q3. Of 20 earlier overs in games with totals 45–51, 15% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	7-3 70%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%
ARI	2-8 20%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SF 29–22 ARI SF leads · 51 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2023	Arizona Cardinals 16 @ San Francisco 49ers 35	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+7.9 →+7.6▼ 0.3#1

ARI−0.4 →−3.9▼ 3.5#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

ARI

Offense

◀ SF better

#27

Defense

◀ SF better

#30

+0.8 #1

Turnovers

◀ SF better

0.0 #15

60 plays #28

Pace

ARI faster ▶

61 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #3	25.5 #30	SF
Yards / play	6.74 #1	5.51 #25	SF
EPA / play	+0.19 #1	+0.05 #31	SF
Success rate	50% #1	47% #32	SF

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	ARI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #27	15.8 #1	SF
Yards / play	4.85 #26	4.89 #5	SF
EPA / play	−0.13 #27	−0.11 #4	SF
Success rate	39% #27	41% #7	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.1 #6	9.4 #4	15.5 #4	5.8 #6	7.9 #5	13.8 #3
ARI allowed	4.7 #19	7.9 #26	12.6 #24	4.4 #16	8.5 #31	12.8 #28

ARI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	4.3 #17	6.8 #15	11.1 #16	3.5 #25	3.1 #31	6.6 #31
SF allowed	3.5 #9	5.2 #7	8.7 #5	4.1 #13	3.0 #1	7.1 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.