Cardinals @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sun, Dec 24, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff53°F12 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

3-11 · Power #28

final

Final

Chicago Bears

5-9 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

✓ CHI W

Total

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 21–25 CHI

✓ CHI (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCHI -4.5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCHI -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (63 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCHI -4.5

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 4.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 27–16; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 42, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 4.5; 41.4 points a game (usually 46.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA vs LAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	19–16	L	U43
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	37–34	L	O41.5
Very close	PIT vs ARI 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	10–24	L	U41
Very close	NYG vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-5	24–16	W	U41.5
Very close	GB vs TB 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	20–34	L	O41
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–13	W	U40
Very close	PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-3	20–24	L	O41.5
Very close	NE vs IND 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	26–3	W	U40
Very close	LV vs IND 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	20–25	L	O41.5
Very close	CHI vs NYG 2020 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & rest	-5	17–13	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI WWLWL	5-5	50%	3-3	5-5
CHI LWWWL	5-5	50%	2-2	0-1

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI OUOUO	4-6	40%	3-11
CHI UOUUU	3-6-1	33%	5-9

Went over in Q4. Of 41 earlier overs in games with totals 39–45, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
CHI	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 4–6 CHI CHI leads · 10 games since 2001 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−0.4 →−3.9▼ 3.5#29

CHI−5.2 →−1.1▲ 4.1#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

ARI

Longer bar = better

CHI

#26

Offense

CHI better ▶

#21

#31

Defense

CHI better ▶

#16

−0.1 #19

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #18

62 plays #20

Pace

CHI faster ▶

65 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	ARI off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #25	23.5 #22	Even
Yards / play	4.95 #24	5.22 #16	CHI
EPA / play	−0.12 #26	−0.05 #14	CHI
Success rate	39% #27	41% #11	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #22	26.9 #31	CHI
Yards / play	4.88 #26	5.63 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.07 #21	+0.07 #31	CHI
Success rate	42% #15	48% #32	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	4.5 #16	6.7 #15	11.2 #14	3.5 #23	3.8 #31	7.3 #30
CHI allowed	3.9 #13	8.0 #26	11.9 #18	4.4 #15	7.1 #25	11.6 #24

CHI scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	3.9 #20	6.4 #16	10.3 #16	4.6 #17	5.6 #21	10.2 #21
ARI allowed	5.4 #28	7.9 #25	13.2 #28	5.1 #22	8.6 #31	13.6 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.