Colts @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sun, Dec 24, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

8-6 · Power #21

final

Final

Atlanta Falcons

6-8 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

✓ ATL W

Total

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 24–26 ATL

✓ ATL (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseATL -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2.5

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 2.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ATL won 29–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 44, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 2.6; 48.1 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs NO 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	42–34	W	O44
Very close	CIN vs IND 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–14	W	O45
Very close	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Very close	DEN vs CIN 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	10–15	L	U44
Very close	NYJ vs DET 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	17–20	L	U43.5
Very close	NE vs SF 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	6–33	L	U45
Very close	NE vs CLE 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	45–7	W	O44.5
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	CLE vs PHI 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	22–17	W	U45.5
Very close	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WWWLW	6-3	67%	2-2	1-3
ATL LWWLL	3-6	33%	1-3	1-6

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND UOOOO	7-2	78%	8-6
ATL OUUOU	4-5	44%	6-8

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 44% of games with totals 41–47 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	7-2 78%
ATL	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 6–2 ATL IND leads · 8 games since 2001 · IND has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−3.9 →−0.4▲ 3.5#17

ATL+2.1 →−1.5▼ 3.6#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

IND

Longer bar = better

ATL

#14

Offense

◀ IND better

#25

#19

Defense

ATL better ▶

+0.3 #10

Turnovers

◀ IND better

−0.4 #23

65 plays #10

Pace

Even

65 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	IND off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #8	19.9 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.22 #15	4.94 #7	ATL
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	−0.08 #8	ATL
Success rate	41% #18	39% #4	ATL

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	ATL off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #26	24.5 #27	Even
Yards / play	5.04 #22	5.16 #14	IND
EPA / play	−0.10 #25	−0.04 #15	IND
Success rate	41% #25	43% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	4.9 #11	8.4 #7	13.4 #8	4.6 #14	6.0 #19	10.6 #19
ATL allowed	3.1 #4	7.4 #21	10.6 #14	4.9 #20	4.4 #5	9.3 #10

ATL scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	2.9 #25	5.4 #23	8.2 #28	2.7 #30	7.5 #6	10.2 #21
IND allowed	5.8 #30	7.5 #22	13.3 #30	4.7 #18	5.9 #16	10.6 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.