Packers @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sun, Dec 24, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Carolina Panthers

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Green Bay Packers

6-8 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

2-12 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

GB -3.5

✓ CAR W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 24–20 CAR

✓ GB (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -3.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGB -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -3.5

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 3.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 33–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 39.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 3.5; 31.8 points a game (usually 45.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF @ CHI 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	33–22	W	O40
Very close	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Very close	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	30–20	W	O40
Very close	WSH @ HOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	23–10	W	U41
Very close	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Very close	NE @ NYJ 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	25–6	W	U43
Close	ATL @ CAR 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	15–25	L	U41.5
Close	MIN @ LV 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-3	3–0	P	U40.5
Close	TEN @ WSH 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	21–17	W	U43
Close	JAX @ HOU 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	31–3	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WWWLL	5-5	50%	2-3	1-2
CAR LLWLW	4-5	44%	2-2	4-5

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOOOO	5-5	50%	6-8
CAR UUOUU	2-7	22%	2-12

Went over in Q4. Of 30 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CAR	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 9–7 CAR GB leads · 16 games since 1999 · CAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+5.2 →−1.2▼ 6.4#20

CAR−2.1 →−4.2▼ 2.1#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

CAR

#13

Offense

◀ GB better

#30

#24

Defense

Even

#22

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.4 #24

61 plays #23

Pace

CAR faster ▶

66 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #17	24.9 #29	GB
Yards / play	5.38 #13	4.94 #8	CAR
EPA / play	+0.02 #10	+0.01 #24	GB
Success rate	43% #13	44% #26	GB

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	CAR off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	14.7 #29	21.5 #18	GB
Yards / play	4.08 #32	5.44 #24	GB
EPA / play	−0.18 #30	+0.02 #26	Even
Success rate	38% #30	45% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	4.4 #16	3.9 #32	8.3 #27	7.2 #1	5.9 #20	13.1 #4
CAR allowed	3.1 #4	9.6 #31	12.8 #25	4.4 #14	7.7 #28	12.1 #25

CAR scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	2.4 #28	4.3 #30	6.7 #30	3.1 #28	4.9 #23	8.0 #26
GB allowed	4.2 #16	6.5 #13	10.7 #16	5.7 #26	5.1 #10	10.8 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.