Bills @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sat, Dec 23, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff59°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

8-6 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

5-9 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

BUF -13

✓ LAC W

Total

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 33–20 LAC

✓ BUF (87%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -13

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -13

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 13-point road favorite at LAC, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 24–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 44, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 13.1; 41 points a game (usually 44.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ CIN 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	38–3	W	U45
Very close	PIT @ DAL 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-14	24–19	L	U44
Very close	DAL @ NYG 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & season form	-11.5	21–6	W	U43.5
Very close	TB @ CAR 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-11.5	32–6	W	U44
Close	BAL @ WSH 2020 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-14	31–17	P	O45
Close	TB @ NYG 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-12.5	25–23	L	O47
Close	DAL @ TEN 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & spread	-13.5	27–13	W	P40
Close	PHI @ HOU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-13	29–17	L	O45.5
Close	ARI @ DET 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	12–30	L	U48
Close	IND @ JAX 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar total & situation	-14	11–26	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWLWW	5-6	45%	2-3	4-4
LAC LLWLL	4-7	36%	2-4	0-5

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; LAC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF UUOUU	2-7	22%	8-6
LAC UUUUO	3-8	27%	5-9

Went over in Q4. Of 34 earlier overs in games with totals 41–47, 12% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	2-7 22%
LAC	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 6–7 LAC LAC leads · 13 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF−1.0 →+4.1▲ 5.1#5

LAC−2.1 →−1.4▲ 0.7#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

BUF

Longer bar = better

LAC

Offense

◀ BUF better

#18

#11

Defense

◀ BUF better

#28

+0.2 #13

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−0.1 #20

66 plays #8

Pace

◀ BUF faster

64 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #6	24.6 #28	BUF
Yards / play	5.75 #5	5.62 #27	BUF
EPA / play	+0.13 #2	+0.02 #27	BUF
Success rate	50% #2	45% #29	BUF

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	LAC off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #16	18.1 #4	BUF
Yards / play	5.20 #16	5.16 #13	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #19	−0.07 #11	BUF
Success rate	41% #21	43% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.6 #13	9.1 #6	13.6 #7	4.8 #11	8.4 #3	13.2 #4
LAC allowed	4.4 #17	8.9 #29	13.4 #31	4.6 #18	6.5 #22	11.1 #19

LAC scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.1 #9	7.1 #12	12.1 #9	2.9 #29	6.6 #12	9.5 #23
BUF allowed	4.4 #17	4.6 #4	9.0 #6	1.9 #1	6.4 #21	8.3 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.