Chargers @ Broncos: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Weather at kickoff40°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

5-10 · Power #22

final

Final

Denver Broncos

7-8 · Power #25

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

✓ DEN W

Total

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 24–27 DEN

✓ DEN (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -3.5

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDEN -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 58% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDEN -3.5

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 3.5-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 16–9; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 39, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 3; 34 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	23–19	W	O38
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Very close	GB vs LAR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	20–3	W	U39.5
Very close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–17	L	U40
Very close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	19–13	W	U40
Very close	TEN vs HOU 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	16–19	L	U38
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	16–24	L	O37

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LWLLW	5-7	42%	2-3	1-5
DEN WLWLL	4-8	33%	2-5	1-5

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUUOO	4-8	33%	5-10
DEN OUUOO	3-8	27%	7-8

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 36–42 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
DEN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAC 23–33 DEN DEN leads · 56 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 10 2023	Denver Broncos 24 @ Los Angeles Chargers 7	LAC -3	DEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC−2.1 →−1.3▲ 0.8#22

DEN0.0 →−2.1▼ 2.1#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

LAC

Longer bar = better

DEN

#19

Offense

Even

#19

#27

Defense

Even

#28

+0.1 #14

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+0.3 #10

64 plays #17

Pace

◀ LAC faster

59 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #18	25.1 #29	LAC
Yards / play	5.13 #16	5.92 #31	LAC
EPA / play	−0.06 #19	+0.02 #24	LAC
Success rate	41% #22	45% #26	Even

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: DEN offense

	DEN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #16	24.6 #26	DEN
Yards / play	5.03 #22	5.66 #28	DEN
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	+0.03 #27	DEN
Success rate	42% #15	45% #28	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	4.9 #11	7.1 #14	12.0 #12	2.9 #31	6.8 #13	9.7 #23
DEN allowed	3.0 #3	8.4 #27	11.4 #19	6.7 #32	7.0 #23	13.7 #32

DEN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.2 #8	4.7 #30	9.9 #20	2.9 #28	9.0 #1	11.9 #10
LAC allowed	4.1 #15	9.3 #31	13.4 #29	4.7 #18	6.3 #16	11.0 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.