Chiefs @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game

Weather at kickoff55°F22 mphgusts 33DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

10-6 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

5-11 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

LAC -3.5

✓ KC W

Total

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 17–20 LAC

✗ LAC (61%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -3.5

Total35

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAC -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close35

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 59% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -3.5

Total35

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 3.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 13–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 35, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 2.9; 31.9 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLE vs BAL 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	13–3	W	U38.5
Very close	PIT vs BAL 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	14–16	L	U36.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	11–6	W	U37
Close	LV vs LAC 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-3	63–21	W	O36
Close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Close	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-3	23–19	W	O38
Close	CLE vs NO 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	10–17	L	U32
Close	TEN vs HOU 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–19	L	U38
Close	NYJ vs JAX 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	3–19	L	U36.5
Close	GB vs LAR 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–3	W	U39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC LLPLW	5-5-1	50%	1-2-1	1-0
LAC WLLWL	5-8	38%	3-4	4-2

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OUOUU	4-7	36%	10-6
LAC UUOOU	4-9	31%	5-11

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 45% of games with totals 32–38 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%
LAC	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KC 32–23 LAC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31	KC -5.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC−1.7 →+3.6▲ 5.3#6

LAC−2.1 →−1.6▲ 0.5#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

Longer bar = better

LAC

#10

Offense

◀ KC better

#21

Defense

◀ KC better

#26

−0.7 #31

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

0.0 #17

64 plays #15

Pace

Even

64 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #12	24.1 #25	KC
Yards / play	5.59 #7	5.60 #27	KC
EPA / play	+0.03 #10	+0.02 #26	KC
Success rate	44% #9	45% #27	KC

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LAC off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #21	17.6 #3	KC
Yards / play	5.11 #19	4.74 #4	KC
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.07 #9	KC
Success rate	41% #23	39% #5	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.4 #16	10.1 #2	14.6 #6	4.4 #16	3.4 #32	7.8 #27
LAC allowed	4.1 #16	9.3 #31	13.4 #30	4.4 #15	6.1 #15	10.5 #14

LAC scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	4.6 #15	6.8 #16	11.4 #14	2.9 #27	6.6 #15	9.4 #23
KC allowed	3.4 #5	6.8 #16	10.1 #10	3.3 #6	4.3 #4	7.5 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.