Bears @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Green Bay Packers · Division game

Weather at kickoff36°F8 mphgusts 20DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Chicago Bears

7-9 · Power #18

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

8-8 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -2.5

✓ GB W

Total

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 23–25 GB

✓ GB (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -2.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGB -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 59% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -2.5

Total46

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 2.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 17–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 46, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.7 against an average line of 3; 41.1 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs DEN 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–17	W	U47
Very close	CIN vs IND 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	34–14	W	O45
Very close	SEA vs NYG 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–13	W	U44.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–33	L	O47
Very close	DEN vs CIN 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	10–15	L	U44
Very close	JAX vs NYG 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–23	L	U43.5
Very close	CLE vs NE 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	15–38	L	O43.5
Very close	MIN vs NYJ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	27–22	W	O44
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	16–10	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WWLWW	7-5	58%	3-3	5-4
GB WLLLW	6-6	50%	3-2	2-3

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UUUOO	5-6-1	45%	7-9
GB OOOOO	7-5	58%	8-8

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 47% of games with totals 43–49 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%
GB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CHI 16–41 GB GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2023	Green Bay Packers 38 @ Chicago Bears 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−5.2 →−0.4▲ 4.8#16

GB+5.2 →−0.1▼ 5.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

CHI

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

GB better ▶

#10

#14

Defense

◀ CHI better

#22

+0.1 #13

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #15

66 plays #5

Pace

◀ CHI faster

62 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #16	21.3 #14	Even
Yards / play	5.05 #23	5.42 #22	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #18	+0.01 #25	CHI
Success rate	42% #17	45% #28	CHI

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #11	22.6 #20	GB
Yards / play	5.48 #9	5.21 #17	GB
EPA / play	+0.05 #8	−0.06 #12	Even
Success rate	44% #10	41% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	4.3 #19	7.4 #11	11.6 #12	4.6 #14	5.8 #19	10.3 #20
GB allowed	3.9 #13	6.3 #11	10.2 #12	5.4 #26	5.8 #12	11.1 #17

GB scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	4.9 #12	5.3 #26	10.1 #21	6.8 #1	6.0 #18	12.8 #5
CHI allowed	3.4 #7	7.9 #26	11.3 #16	4.3 #14	7.1 #26	11.3 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.