Broncos @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Las Vegas Raiders · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

8-8 · Power #25

final

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

7-9 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

LV -3

✓ LV W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 22–24 LV

✓ LV (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -3

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLV -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 74%, covered 59% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -3

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 3-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 27–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 41 points went over 37.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 2.9; 35.6 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	23–19	W	O38
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Very close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Very close	DEN vs LAC 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	16–9	W	U39
Very close	TEN vs HOU 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	16–19	L	U38
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–17	L	U40
Very close	CLE vs JAX 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	31–27	W	O37.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	19–13	W	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LWLLW	5-8	38%	2-3	3-3
LV LPWWW	9-6-1	60%	5-2-1	4-2

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; LV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UUOOU	3-9	25%	8-8
LV OUOUO	4-11	27%	7-9

Went over in Q4. Of 31 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
LV	4-6 40%	6-3-1 67%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DEN 31–23 LV DEN leads · 54 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Denver Broncos 16	DEN -3.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN0.0 →−1.9▼ 1.9#24

LV0.0 →−1.9▼ 1.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

DEN

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

◀ DEN better

#25

#27

Defense

LV better ▶

#13

+0.3 #10

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

−0.2 #21

60 plays #29

Pace

Even

59 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: LV defense

	DEN off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #17	19.8 #8	LV
Yards / play	5.00 #25	5.18 #15	LV
EPA / play	−0.06 #20	−0.06 #10	LV
Success rate	42% #14	43% #19	DEN

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	19.1 #25	24.1 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.83 #27	5.84 #30	Even
EPA / play	−0.11 #27	+0.01 #24	Even
Success rate	41% #21	44% #26	LV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.1 #8	5.0 #28	10.1 #22	2.8 #30	8.6 #2	11.4 #11
LV allowed	3.8 #11	6.6 #14	10.3 #13	4.4 #15	5.1 #6	9.5 #10

LV scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.3 #7	6.3 #20	11.6 #12	2.9 #27	4.6 #28	7.4 #30
DEN allowed	2.8 #3	8.1 #27	10.9 #15	6.5 #31	6.8 #23	13.3 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.