Raiders @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

7-8 · Power #23

final

Final

Indianapolis Colts

8-7 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

IND -3.5

✓ LV W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 23–26 IND

✓ IND (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -3.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIND -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 59% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -3.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 3.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 42.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 3.4; 46.8 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO vs CAR 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	7–10	L	U41.5
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	37–34	L	O41.5
Very close	MIN vs NYJ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–22	W	O44
Very close	LV vs IND 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	20–25	L	O41.5
Very close	SF vs WSH 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	15–23	L	U43.5
Very close	GB vs TB 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	20–34	L	O41
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	CIN vs MIN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–24	P	O41.5
Very close	TEN vs MIA 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–3	W	U41
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–17	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WLPWW	8-6-1	57%	3-4	3-4-1
IND WWLWL	6-4	60%	3-1	5-0

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOUOU	3-11	21%	7-8
IND OOOOU	7-3	70%	8-7

Went over in Q4. Of 41 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 15% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%
IND	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 5–9 IND IND leads · 14 games since 2000 · IND has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV0.0 →−2.0▼ 2.0#24

IND−3.9 →−1.2▲ 2.7#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

IND

#25

Offense

IND better ▶

#17

#13

Defense

◀ LV better

#21

−0.2 #22

Turnovers

IND better ▶

+0.2 #11

58 plays #32

Pace

IND faster ▶

65 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #25	24.8 #28	Even
Yards / play	4.82 #28	5.23 #17	IND
EPA / play	−0.13 #27	−0.03 #16	IND
Success rate	41% #21	44% #23	Even

When IND has the ball

Even matchup

	IND off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #10	19.6 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #18	5.11 #13	LV
EPA / play	−0.05 #18	−0.07 #10	LV
Success rate	41% #20	44% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.5 #7	6.7 #15	12.2 #10	2.6 #32	4.2 #29	6.8 #32
IND allowed	5.9 #30	7.4 #21	13.3 #26	4.9 #20	6.1 #15	10.9 #16

IND scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.1 #10	7.9 #9	12.9 #9	4.5 #15	5.6 #21	10.1 #21
LV allowed	3.5 #10	6.5 #13	10.1 #10	4.5 #15	5.0 #7	9.5 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.