Thu, Dec 28, 2023, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Cleveland Browns
Closing spread
CLE -7
✓ CLE W
Total
33.5
▲ Over · 57 pts
Model before kickoff
NYJ 16–23 CLE
✓ CLE (74%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseCLE -7
Total33.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseCLE -7
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close33.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseCLE -7
Total33.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CLE as a 7-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: CLE won 37–20; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 33.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 70%
Favorite covered
9 of 1090%
Above normal · usually 45%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 52%
Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 17.4 against an average line of 6.7; 35.4 points a game (usually 47.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  BAL vs  ATL2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-6.5 | 17–9 | W | U35.5 |
| Close |  NO vs  CAR2021 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & season form |
-7 | 18–10 | W | U37 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation |
-7 | 30–0 | W | U35.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form |
-7.5 | 27–0 | W | U38.5 |
| Close |  SF vs  WSH2022 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & spread |
-6.5 | 37–20 | W | O37.5 |
| Close |  NYJ vs  CHI2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread |
-7.5 | 31–10 | W | O36.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings |
-5.5 | 28–6 | W | U38.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-7 | 23–26 | L | O37.5 |
| Loose | CHI vs  NYG2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-6.5 | 29–3 | W | U36.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-6 | 24–6 | W | U39.5 |
MIA
ARI
DEN
NEHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 5 trends and market moves behind it
Strong Cleveland Browns ATS trend Hit
Strong-or-stronger ATS leans went 22-16 (58%) in our 2023–25 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
New York Jets ATS struggles (2-7-1)
New York Jets have covered only 22% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)
New York Jets away ATS weakness (0-3-1)
Weak against the spread on the road this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 71-65 (52%)
Cleveland Browns ATS trend (7-3-1)
Cleveland Browns have covered 70% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 83-84 (50%)
Cleveland Browns 5-0 ATS at home
Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-69 (48%)
Cleveland Browns 5-1 ATS as a favorite
Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 81-81 (50%)
Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 4-6 40% | 2-7-1 22% | 3-7 30% |
| CLE | 7-3 70% | 6-3-1 67% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
The series
NYJ 10–6 CLE
NYJ leads · 16 games since 2002 · NYJ has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NYJ+1.0 →−2.6▼ 3.6#26
CLE+6.0 →+2.9▼ 3.1#8
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16
NYJLonger bar = better
CLE#31
Offense
CLE better ▶#24
#6
Defense
Even#4
−0.5 #29
Turnovers
Even−0.5 #26
61 plays #23
Pace
CLE faster ▶72 plays #1
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When NYJ has the ball| NYJ off | CLE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 15.4 #30 | 20.7 #12 | CLE |
| Yards / play | 4.29 #30 | 4.46 #1 | CLE |
| EPA / play | −0.26 #32 | −0.20 #1 | CLE |
| Success rate | 35% #32 | 34% #1 | CLE |
When CLE has the ball| CLE off | NYJ def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 23.0 #10 | 21.0 #14 | Even |
| Yards / play | 4.68 #29 | 4.55 #3 | NYJ |
| EPA / play | −0.14 #28 | −0.10 #4 | NYJ |
| Success rate | 39% #29 | 38% #2 | NYJ |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
NYJ scoring against the CLE defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ scored | 2.5 #29 | 4.7 #26 | 7.2 #29 | 2.9 #29 | 4.7 #25 | 7.6 #28 |
| CLE allowed | 5.7 #30 | 4.5 #2 | 10.2 #11 | 3.6 #9 | 6.9 #23 | 10.5 #13 |
CLE scoring against the NYJ defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE scored | 3.6 #22 | 8.3 #8 | 11.9 #13 | 4.7 #14 | 6.4 #16 | 11.1 #17 |
| NYJ allowed | 5.3 #27 | 7.2 #21 | 12.5 #26 | 3.6 #9 | 4.9 #6 | 8.5 #5 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CLE +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
43° · 10 mph
gusts 11 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
NYJ4d short
CLE4d short
Even
Tempo
Fast 133 plays
slowavg 127fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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