Patriots @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

Weather at kickoff36°F7 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

4-11 · Power #29

final

Final

Buffalo Bills

9-6 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUF -15.5

✓ NE W

Total

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 15–30 BUF

✓ BUF (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -15.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -15.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -15.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 15.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 27–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 40, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 39%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 37%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.3 against an average line of 15.3; 48.7 points a game (usually 44.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LAR 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16	26–10	P	U42
Very close	SF vs ARI 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & rest	-14	38–13	W	O40.5
Very close	BUF vs CAR 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	31–14	W	O43
Close	DAL vs NYG 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	49–17	W	O39
Close	PHI vs NYG 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & rest	-17	22–16	L	U43
Close	NE vs JAX 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	50–10	W	O41.5
Close	PHI vs NYG 2023 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & total	-14	33–25	L	O41
Close	BUF vs NYJ 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & rest	-15.5	27–10	W	U42.5
Close	SF vs TB 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	27–14	L	U42
Close	MIA vs TEN 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-13.5	27–28	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LLWPW	3-6-1	33%	2-3	3-4-1
BUF WLWWL	5-7	42%	3-3	4-5

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UUOOO	5-5	50%	4-11
BUF UOUUO	3-7	30%	9-6

Went over in Q3. Of 36 earlier overs in games with totals 37–43, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%
BUF	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NE 40–16 BUF NE leads · 56 games since 1999 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2023	Buffalo Bills 25 @ New England Patriots 29	BUF -7.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE0.0 →−3.1▼ 3.1#28

BUF−1.0 →+4.2▲ 5.2#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

BUF

#29

Offense

BUF better ▶

#11

Defense

Even

#11

−0.5 #27

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

0.0 #16

61 plays #26

Pace

BUF faster ▶

65 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	NE off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	14.1 #32	18.4 #4	BUF
Yards / play	4.71 #29	5.09 #12	BUF
EPA / play	−0.16 #30	−0.07 #11	BUF
Success rate	40% #24	42% #15	BUF

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #6	21.5 #15	BUF
Yards / play	5.79 #5	4.78 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #2	−0.04 #15	BUF
Success rate	49% #2	41% #10	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.2 #31	4.7 #27	6.9 #30	3.1 #27	4.1 #30	7.2 #31
BUF allowed	4.3 #18	4.7 #4	9.1 #5	1.9 #1	6.6 #20	8.5 #6

BUF scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	9.4 #4	13.7 #7	4.9 #10	8.1 #3	13.0 #4
NE allowed	4.9 #22	7.1 #20	11.9 #21	3.3 #6	6.3 #16	9.5 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.