49ers @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff48°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

11-4 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

4-11 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

SF -14

✓ SF W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 33–19 WSH

✓ SF (90%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -14

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSF -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSF -14

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 14-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: SF won 27–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 40%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 13.3; 49.4 points a game (usually 43.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB @ NYJ 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13	28–24	L	O47.5
Very close	KC @ HOU 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	30–24	L	O48
Very close	BUF @ JAX 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-13	6–9	L	U48.5
Very close	ARI @ DET 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	12–30	L	U48
Very close	LAR @ HOU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	38–22	W	O47
Very close	BUF @ NYJ 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-12.5	45–17	W	O48.5
Close	PHI @ HOU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-13	29–17	L	O45.5
Close	SF @ ARI 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar total & season form	-12	45–29	W	O48
Close	BAL @ WSH 2020 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	31–17	P	O45
Close	BAL @ CIN 2020 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	38–3	W	U45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WWLWL	4-6	40%	4-2	4-6
WSH LLLLW	6-8-1	43%	0-5-1	6-4-1

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OOUOO	6-4	60%	11-4
WSH OOOUO	8-5	62%	4-11

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 44% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
WSH	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 9–5 WSH SF leads · 14 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+7.9 →+7.0▼ 0.9#1

WSH+0.4 →−5.2▼ 5.6#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

WSH

Offense

◀ SF better

#22

Defense

◀ SF better

#28

+0.5 #5

Turnovers

◀ SF better

−0.7 #32

60 plays #27

Pace

WSH faster ▶

65 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #3	30.2 #32	SF
Yards / play	6.75 #1	5.88 #30	SF
EPA / play	+0.17 #1	+0.06 #31	SF
Success rate	50% #1	43% #17	SF

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	WSH off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	20.6 #23	17.8 #3	SF
Yards / play	5.07 #21	5.02 #11	SF
EPA / play	−0.09 #24	−0.09 #6	SF
Success rate	41% #19	41% #8	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.5 #3	9.1 #5	15.6 #3	6.0 #7	8.0 #4	14.0 #1
WSH allowed	7.2 #32	9.4 #31	16.6 #32	3.2 #5	10.2 #32	13.4 #30

WSH scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.6 #29	6.1 #19	8.7 #26	4.7 #14	7.3 #7	11.9 #11
SF allowed	3.7 #12	5.7 #9	9.5 #7	4.9 #20	3.5 #2	8.3 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.