Cowboys @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Washington Commanders · Division game

Weather at kickoff47°F14 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

11-5 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

4-12 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

DAL -13

✓ DAL W

Total

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 31–18 WSH

✓ DAL (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -13

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDAL -13

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -13

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 13-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 38–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 47, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 13.4; 45.7 points a game (usually 44.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB @ NYJ 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-13	28–24	L	O47.5
Very close	ARI @ DET 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	12–30	L	U48
Very close	BUF @ NYJ 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	45–17	W	O48.5
Very close	TB @ NYG 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-12.5	25–23	L	O47
Very close	SF @ WSH 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar season form & rest	-14	27–10	W	U48.5
Very close	BAL @ CIN 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	38–3	W	U45
Very close	BUF @ JAX 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13	6–9	L	U48.5
Very close	PHI @ HOU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-13	29–17	L	O45.5
Very close	KC @ HOU 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	30–24	L	O48
Very close	LAR @ HOU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	38–22	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL LWLLL	6-5	55%	2-3	6-2
WSH LLLWL	6-9-1	40%	0-6-1	6-5-1

Venue/role: DAL away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OUUUU	5-6	45%	11-5
WSH OOUOU	8-6	57%	4-12

Went over in Q4. Of 36 earlier overs in games with totals 44–50, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
WSH	1-9 10%	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DAL 39–16 WSH DAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2023	Washington Commanders 10 @ Dallas Cowboys 45	DAL -13	DAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+9.1 →+5.1▼ 4.0#3

WSH+0.4 →−5.6▼ 6.0#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

DAL

Longer bar = better

WSH

Offense

◀ DAL better

#22

#10

Defense

◀ DAL better

#30

+0.5 #8

Turnovers

◀ DAL better

−0.8 #32

66 plays #4

Pace

◀ DAL faster

63 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #3	30.0 #32	DAL
Yards / play	5.58 #8	5.89 #31	DAL
EPA / play	+0.09 #4	+0.07 #31	DAL
Success rate	46% #5	44% #24	DAL

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: DAL defense

	WSH off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #23	19.1 #6	DAL
Yards / play	5.08 #20	5.09 #11	DAL
EPA / play	−0.10 #26	−0.10 #3	DAL
Success rate	41% #19	44% #20	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	7.6 #1	9.6 #3	17.2 #1	3.4 #25	8.8 #1	12.3 #10
WSH allowed	7.4 #32	9.0 #30	16.4 #32	3.4 #8	10.0 #32	13.4 #32

WSH scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.4 #28	6.3 #20	8.8 #28	4.4 #16	6.8 #11	11.2 #13
DAL allowed	3.5 #8	6.6 #15	10.1 #10	4.8 #19	4.2 #3	8.9 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.