Jets @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 18 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Weather at kickoff33°F12 mphgusts 23Wet0.1 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New York Jets

6-10 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

4-12 · Power #29

final

Closing spread

NE -2.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

28.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 17–19 NE

✗ NE (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNE -2.5

Total28.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNE -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close28.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNE -2.5

Total28.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like NE as a 2.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: NYJ won 17–3 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 5 similar games. 20 points stayed under 28.5, as in 3 of 5.

Favorite won

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 3.6; 36.8 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEN vs HOU 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	14–19	L	U34
Close	CLE vs NO 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar spread	-3	10–17	L	U32
Loose	PIT vs NE 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	18–21	L	O30.5
Loose	TEN vs CAR 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	17–10	W	U36
Loose	NYJ vs WSH 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread & season form	-3	30–28	L	O36

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ LWLLL	2-8-1	20%	0-4-1	2-6
NE LWPWW	4-6-1	40%	1-2-1	0-2

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UOUOO	4-7	36%	6-10
NE UOOOO	6-5	55%	4-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	3-7 30%	1-8-1 11%	4-6 40%
NE	3-7 30%	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NYJ 14–43 NE NE leads · 57 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 24 2023	New England Patriots 15 @ New York Jets 10	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ+1.0 →−2.9▼ 3.9#26

NE0.0 →−3.1▼ 3.1#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

NYJ

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

Even

#29

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#12

−0.4 #26

Turnovers

◀ NYJ better

−0.6 #30

62 plays #23

Pace

◀ NYJ faster

60 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	NYJ off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #29	21.8 #17	NE
Yards / play	4.36 #31	4.74 #5	NE
EPA / play	−0.25 #32	−0.04 #16	NE
Success rate	35% #32	41% #11	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	NE off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	14.6 #32	22.0 #18	NYJ
Yards / play	4.76 #29	4.71 #3	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.17 #29	−0.09 #4	NYJ
Success rate	40% #26	38% #2	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	5.1 #28	7.8 #29	2.8 #31	4.6 #27	7.3 #30
NE allowed	5.4 #26	7.1 #18	12.4 #22	3.5 #9	5.9 #15	9.4 #10

NE scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.5 #28	4.9 #30	7.4 #30	2.9 #28	4.3 #30	7.2 #32
NYJ allowed	6.3 #31	7.6 #23	13.9 #30	3.4 #6	4.8 #6	8.1 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.