Bills @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2023)

Sun, Jan 7, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 18 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

Weather at kickoff61°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

10-6 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

11-5 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

✓ BUF W

Total

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 29–26 MIA

✓ BUF (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -2.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBUF -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–4.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 58% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBUF -2.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 2.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 21–14; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 48, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 57%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 46%

Wins above normal, covers above normal, overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 2.6; 58.7 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR @ ARI 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	38–28	W	O48.5
Very close	LAR @ MIN 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	30–23	W	O48.5
Very close	SF @ PHI 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	42–19	W	O46.5
Very close	DAL @ MIN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	40–3	W	U48.5
Very close	KC @ LAC 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	34–28	W	O50
Very close	DET @ LAC 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	41–38	W	O48
Close	GB @ MIN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	31–34	L	O47.5
Close	IND @ TEN 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-1	34–17	W	O49
Close	BAL @ LAC 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-3	20–10	W	U49
Close	DAL @ PHI 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & rest	-4	51–26	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWWLL	5-8	38%	2-4	4-6
MIA WLWWL	6-5	55%	4-2	0-2

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUUOO	4-7	36%	10-6
MIA OOUUO	6-5	55%	11-5

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 48% of games with totals 45–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
MIA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUF 35–20 MIA BUF leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2023	Miami Dolphins 20 @ Buffalo Bills 48	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF−1.0 →+4.0▲ 5.0#4

MIA+2.1 →+4.0▲ 1.9#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

BUF

Longer bar = better

MIA

Offense

Even

Defense

◀ BUF better

#15

+0.2 #11

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

+0.1 #15

65 plays #8

Pace

◀ BUF faster

63 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #6	23.1 #22	BUF
Yards / play	5.68 #5	5.04 #10	BUF
EPA / play	+0.11 #2	−0.05 #13	BUF
Success rate	49% #2	42% #13	BUF

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #1	18.6 #5	Even
Yards / play	6.51 #2	5.12 #11	MIA
EPA / play	+0.10 #4	−0.08 #8	Even
Success rate	47% #5	42% #12	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.8 #12	9.3 #4	14.1 #7	5.1 #9	7.6 #4	12.6 #6
MIA allowed	5.2 #24	7.6 #23	12.8 #27	3.2 #5	7.2 #27	10.4 #14

MIA scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.4 #4	10.5 #1	16.9 #2	6.5 #2	6.8 #12	13.3 #1
BUF allowed	4.5 #20	4.9 #3	9.4 #7	1.8 #1	6.6 #22	8.4 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.