Dolphins @ Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (AFC Wild Card Playoffs, 2023)

Sat, Jan 13, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTAFC Wild Card Playoffs · at Kansas City Chiefs

Weather at kickoff-3°F14 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

11-6 · Power #7

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

11-6 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

KC -4.5

✓ KC W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 21–26 KC

✓ KC (65%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -4.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKC -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (81 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKC -4.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 4.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 26–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 3.9; 40.3 points a game (usually 45.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5	33–17	W	O45.5
Very close	NE vs CIN 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	18–22	L	U41.5
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	BAL vs DET 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	38–6	W	O43.5
Very close	LAR vs NO 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4	30–22	W	O45.5
Close	SF vs DAL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	19–12	W	U46.5
Close	DEN vs LV 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-5	24–34	L	O45
Close	DEN vs CIN 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-3	10–15	L	U44
Close	LAR vs NE 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	24–3	W	U43.5
Close	NE vs SF 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-3	6–33	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LWWLL	6-6	50%	2-2	0-3
KC LPLWW	6-5-1	55%	3-3	4-5-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUUOU	6-6	50%	11-6
KC UOUUU	4-8	33%	11-6

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 45% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
KC	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 3–8 KC KC leads · 11 games since 2002 · KC has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 5 2023	Miami Dolphins 14 @ Kansas City Chiefs 21	MIA -1	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+2.1 →+3.5▲ 1.4#5

KC−1.7 →+3.4▲ 5.1#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW18

MIA

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ MIA better

#12

#16

Defense

KC better ▶

+0.1 #13

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

−0.6 #28

62 plays #21

Pace

KC faster ▶

64 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #2	17.3 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.48 #2	4.71 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.10 #4	−0.09 #6	Even
Success rate	47% #5	40% #5	Even

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #15	23.0 #22	KC
Yards / play	5.53 #9	5.12 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #10	−0.04 #15	KC
Success rate	44% #12	43% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.0 #5	10.7 #1	16.7 #2	6.1 #2	6.4 #14	12.5 #8
KC allowed	3.2 #4	6.7 #14	9.9 #9	3.2 #6	4.2 #4	7.4 #1

KC scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	4.6 #13	9.7 #3	14.3 #6	4.1 #20	3.4 #32	7.5 #29
MIA allowed	4.9 #23	7.5 #22	12.4 #24	3.0 #4	7.6 #29	10.6 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.