Dolphins vs Chiefs: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 9:30 AM ESTWeek 9 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff53°F14 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

6-2 · Power #7

final

Final

Kansas City Chiefs

6-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -1

✓ KC W

Total

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 26–26 KC

✗ MIA (52%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -1

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -1

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like MIA as a 1-point neutral-site favorite against KC, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 21–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 2 similar games. 35 points stayed under 51, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 51%

Favorite covered

0 of 20%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 42%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 12.5 against an average line of 2.3; 56.5 points a game (usually 44.3). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI vs KC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	35–38	L	O51.5
Loose	KC vs TB 2020 · Postseason · loose	-3	9–31	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MIA ––WLW	2-1	67%	—	2-0
KC ––WWL	2-1	67%	—	—

Venue/role: MIA neutral, as favorite; KC neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA ––OUO	2-1	67%	6-2
KC ––UOU	1-2	33%	6-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIAlast 8	6-2 75%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
KClast 8	6-2 75%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 3–8 KC KC leads · 11 games since 2002 · KC has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+2.1 →+3.2▲ 1.1#8

KC−1.7 →+4.1▲ 5.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MIA

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ MIA better

#21

Defense

KC better ▶

−0.5 #27

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #25

62 plays #21

Pace

KC faster ▶

65 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #1	16.1 #2	Even
Yards / play	7.33 #1	4.75 #3	Even
EPA / play	+0.19 #1	−0.10 #6	MIA
Success rate	51% #2	40% #5	Even

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #12	25.5 #25	KC
Yards / play	5.84 #4	5.10 #14	KC
EPA / play	+0.07 #5	−0.02 #20	KC
Success rate	46% #7	45% #26	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	6.0 #8	12.9 #1	18.9 #1	7.8 #2	7.3 #8	15.0 #2
KC allowed	2.5 #3	6.1 #10	8.6 #5	1.9 #4	5.6 #14	7.5 #5

KC scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	5.0 #11	11.8 #2	16.8 #3	4.3 #15	2.4 #32	6.6 #30
MIA allowed	6.5 #28	7.5 #20	14.0 #29	3.8 #14	7.8 #26	11.5 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.