Cardinals @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff51°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

1-7 · Power #28

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

4-3 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLE -7.5

✓ CLE W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

ARI 19–26 CLE

✓ CLE (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -7.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLE -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLE -7.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLE as a 7.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 27–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 38.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.1 against an average line of 7; 41.7 points a game (usually 47.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs CHI 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	29–27	L	O40
Very close	NO vs CAR 2021 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	18–10	W	U37
Very close	NYJ vs CHI 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–10	W	O36.5
Very close	SEA vs CHI 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	24–25	L	O41
Very close	CLE vs NYJ 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	30–31	L	O39.5
Very close	MIA vs NYG 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	20–9	W	U39.5
Very close	NE vs CHI 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-8.5	14–33	L	O40
Very close	BAL vs ATL 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	17–9	W	U35.5
Very close	LAC vs LAR 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	31–10	W	P41
Close	ATL vs ARI 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	20–19	L	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI ––LLW	2-2	50%	1-2	2-2
CLE ––WLP	1-1-1	50%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; CLE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI ––UUO	1-3	25%	1-7
CLE ––OOO	3-0	100%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIlast 8	1-7 13%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
CLElast 7	4-3 57%	1-1-1 50%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 6–2 CLE ARI leads · 8 games since 2000 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−0.4 →−3.6▼ 3.2#29

CLE+6.0 →+1.8▼ 4.2#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ARI

Longer bar = better

CLE

#22

Offense

Even

#25

#29

Defense

CLE better ▶

+0.1 #13

Turnovers

◀ ARI better

−1.0 #31

63 plays #19

Pace

CLE faster ▶

72 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	ARI off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #22	19.9 #12	CLE
Yards / play	5.08 #20	4.74 #2	CLE
EPA / play	−0.10 #24	−0.19 #1	CLE
Success rate	41% #23	34% #1	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #13	26.6 #27	CLE
Yards / play	4.58 #29	5.56 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.18 #29	+0.07 #31	Even
Success rate	39% #29	50% #32	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	4.0 #18	9.0 #7	13.0 #10	2.9 #24	3.0 #29	5.9 #32
CLE allowed	7.4 #32	5.1 #5	12.6 #20	1.9 #3	5.4 #14	7.3 #4

CLE scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	3.3 #24	9.3 #6	12.6 #12	4.7 #10	4.7 #27	9.4 #20
ARI allowed	5.5 #24	6.0 #9	11.5 #15	5.5 #24	9.6 #31	15.1 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.