Browns @ Ravens: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Baltimore Ravens · Division game

Weather at kickoff49°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

5-3 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Baltimore Ravens

7-2 · Power #2

final

Closing spread

BAL -6

✓ CLE W

Total

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 19–25 BAL

✗ BAL (71%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -6

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAL -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAL -6

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 6-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 33–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 39, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 6.3; 45.4 points a game (usually 47.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs WSH 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	37–20	W	O37.5
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	26–17	W	O42.5
Close	ARI vs CAR 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	10–34	L	O41.5
Close	BUF vs NE 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	47–17	W	O43
Close	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	24–17	L	O40
Close	BAL vs SEA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-6	37–3	W	U44
Close	PHI vs NO 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	10–20	L	U41.5
Close	PIT vs WSH 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	17–23	L	U44
Close	LAR vs CHI 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	24–10	W	U44
Close	BUF vs MIA 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	32–29	L	O42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE –WLPW	2-1-1	67%	0-1-1	1-0-1
BAL –WWLW	3-1	75%	2-0	3-1

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE –OOOU	3-1	75%	5-3
BAL –UOOU	2-2	50%	7-2

Went over in Q3. Of 7 earlier overs in games with totals 36–42, 43% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLElast 8	5-3 63%	2-1-1 67%	3-1 75%
BALlast 9	7-2 78%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLE 16–39 BAL BAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2023	Baltimore Ravens 28 @ Cleveland Browns 3	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE+6.0 →+2.7▼ 3.3#9

BAL+2.2 →+5.4▲ 3.2#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CLE

Longer bar = better

BAL

#26

Offense

BAL better ▶

Defense

Even

−0.5 #27

Turnovers

BAL better ▶

+0.1 #11

72 plays #1

Pace

◀ CLE faster

65 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	CLE off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #14	13.8 #1	BAL
Yards / play	4.58 #29	4.08 #1	BAL
EPA / play	−0.17 #29	−0.21 #2	BAL
Success rate	38% #31	38% #2	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #6	17.4 #3	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #5	4.35 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #6	−0.26 #1	CLE
Success rate	48% #4	32% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	2.9 #25	9.8 #4	12.6 #11	5.0 #6	5.0 #25	10.0 #16
BAL allowed	1.4 #1	3.6 #1	5.0 #1	2.2 #6	6.2 #19	8.4 #8

BAL scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	6.9 #3	8.1 #7	15.0 #6	6.2 #5	5.3 #20	11.6 #10
CLE allowed	6.5 #30	4.5 #4	11.0 #13	1.6 #2	4.8 #10	6.4 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.