Titans @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff86°F4 mphgusts 12Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

3-5 · Power #27

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-5 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

TB -2.5

✓ TB W

Total

▼ Under · 26 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 22–24 TB

✓ TB (58%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTB -2.5

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTB -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTB -2.5

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 2.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 20–6; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 39, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 2.7; 38.4 points a game (usually 46). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	TEN vs DEN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Very close	HOU vs TB 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	39–37	L	O39.5
Very close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Very close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-3	16–17	L	U40
Very close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	NO vs LAR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	27–20	W	O39
Very close	GB vs LAR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	20–3	W	U39.5
Very close	NYG vs CHI 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	20–12	W	U39

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN ––LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
TB –LLWW	2-2	50%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN ––UOP	1-1-1	50%	3-5
TB –UUUO	1-3	25%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 28% of games with totals 36–42 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENlast 8	3-5 38%	1-2 33%	1-1-1 50%
TBlast 8	3-5 38%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 5–2 TB TEN leads · 7 games since 2001 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−0.8 →−1.3▼ 0.5#21

TB+0.3 →−1.0▼ 1.3#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TEN

Longer bar = better

#21

Offense

Even

#22

#21

Defense

Even

#24

−0.4 #22

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+1.0 #3

59 plays #29

Pace

TB faster ▶

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #24	20.9 #16	TB
Yards / play	5.16 #17	5.77 #30	TEN
EPA / play	−0.04 #18	0.00 #24	TEN
Success rate	39% #25	45% #26	Even

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #22	20.0 #11	TEN
Yards / play	4.93 #23	5.36 #22	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #15	+0.02 #27	TB
Success rate	38% #28	45% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.1 #24	7.1 #15	10.3 #21	5.0 #6	2.9 #30	7.9 #27
TB allowed	4.1 #13	6.3 #10	10.4 #9	5.1 #23	5.4 #14	10.5 #21

TB scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	2.9 #25	7.1 #15	10.0 #24	2.9 #26	6.9 #9	9.8 #17
TEN allowed	4.4 #16	5.3 #6	9.6 #6	4.1 #17	6.3 #20	10.4 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.