Packers @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sun, Nov 12, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff50°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

3-5 · Power #10

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

5-3 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -3

✓ PIT W

Total

▲ Over · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 22–25 PIT

✓ PIT (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -3

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePIT -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -3

Total38

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 3-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 23–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points went over 38, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 2.8; 35.9 points a game (usually 46.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	GB vs LAR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	20–3	W	U39.5
Very close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	16–17	L	U40
Very close	NYG vs CHI 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–12	W	U39
Very close	CLE vs BAL 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	13–3	W	U38.5
Very close	HOU vs TB 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	39–37	L	O39.5
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Very close	PIT vs BAL 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & total	-2	14–16	L	U36.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB –LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
PIT ––WLW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB –UUUU	0-4	0%	3-5
PIT ––UUP	0-3-1	0%	5-3

Went over in Q3. Of 9 earlier overs in games with totals 35–41, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GBlast 8	3-5 38%	2-2 50%	0-4 0%
PITlast 8	5-3 63%	3-1 75%	0-3-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 3–5 PIT PIT leads · 8 games since 2005 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+5.2 →−1.3▼ 6.5#22

PIT−7.9 →−2.5▲ 5.4#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

PIT

#19

Offense

◀ GB better

#27

#13

Defense

◀ GB better

#17

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+1.0 #4

60 plays #26

Pace

Even

59 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #20	20.4 #13	PIT
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.54 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #17	−0.06 #10	PIT
Success rate	42% #18	44% #21	Even

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	PIT off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #29	19.9 #10	GB
Yards / play	4.69 #28	4.89 #6	GB
EPA / play	−0.13 #26	−0.02 #19	GB
Success rate	39% #26	44% #18	GB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	1.6 #30	2.9 #32	4.5 #32	8.3 #2	7.3 #7	15.5 #1
PIT allowed	5.8 #26	6.5 #13	12.3 #23	4.3 #18	3.9 #3	8.1 #6

PIT scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.6 #27	4.3 #29	6.9 #28	4.5 #11	5.3 #21	9.8 #17
GB allowed	4.6 #20	6.8 #15	11.4 #14	4.0 #15	4.5 #9	8.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.