Rams @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff49°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

3-5 · Power #9

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

2-5 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -3

✓ GB W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 24–26 GB

✓ GB (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -3

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGB -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -3

Total39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 3-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 20–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 2.8; 37 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Very close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–17	L	U40
Very close	CLE vs BAL 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	13–3	W	U38.5
Very close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Very close	NO vs LAR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	27–20	W	O39
Very close	NYG vs CHI 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–12	W	U39
Very close	GB vs TEN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–27	L	O40.5
Very close	TEN vs JAX 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	22–36	L	O41.5
Very close	CLE vs DEN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-2	17–14	W	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR ––WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
GB ––LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	—

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR ––UUO	1-2	33%	3-5
GB ––UUU	0-3	0%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LARlast 8	3-5 38%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
GBlast 7	2-5 29%	1-2 33%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 4–11 GB GB leads · 15 games since 2001 · GB has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+7.8 →+0.1▼ 7.7#16

GB+5.2 →−2.2▼ 7.4#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

LAR

Longer bar = better

#11

Offense

◀ LAR better

#21

#20

Defense

Even

#21

−0.3 #19

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #22

65 plays #12

Pace

◀ LAR faster

59 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #15	22.3 #20	LAR
Yards / play	5.50 #11	5.06 #12	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #8	+0.03 #26	LAR
Success rate	45% #10	45% #25	LAR

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #21	23.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	4.89 #23	5.32 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #17	+0.01 #22	GB
Success rate	41% #21	44% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	5.0 #12	6.0 #21	11.0 #19	5.3 #6	4.9 #25	10.1 #15
GB allowed	5.3 #23	7.3 #19	12.6 #20	4.6 #21	5.1 #13	9.7 #14

GB scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	1.9 #29	2.3 #32	4.1 #32	9.0 #1	6.9 #12	15.9 #1
LAR allowed	4.6 #17	7.6 #20	12.3 #17	3.9 #16	6.9 #21	10.8 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.