Colts @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Carolina Panthers

Weather at kickoff71°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

3-5 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

1-6 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

IND -2.5

✓ IND W

Total

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 28–26 CAR

✓ IND (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -2.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIND -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIND -2.5

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 2.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IND won 27–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 45, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 3.1; 49.1 points a game (usually 46.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL @ NYG 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	19–23	L	U43.5
Very close	TEN @ WSH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	21–17	W	U43
Very close	DAL @ CIN 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	30–7	W	U44
Very close	PHI @ DET 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	44–6	W	O48
Very close	LAC @ DEN 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	30–31	L	O44.5
Very close	DET @ CAR 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	23–37	L	O43.5
Very close	SF @ DAL 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	33–41	L	O45.5
Close	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Close	CIN @ DET 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–11	W	U46.5
Close	GB @ CHI 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-4	28–19	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND ––LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	—
CAR –––LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: IND away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND ––OOO	3-0	100%	3-5
CAR –––OU	1-1	50%	1-6

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 40% of games with totals 42–48 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
INDlast 8	3-5 38%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%
CARlast 7	1-6 14%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 3–3 CAR Series tied · 6 games since 2003 · IND has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−3.9 →−1.0▲ 2.9#21

CAR−2.1 →−3.9▼ 1.8#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

IND

Longer bar = better

CAR

#15

Offense

◀ IND better

#27

#24

Defense

◀ IND better

#28

−0.3 #18

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #21

67 plays #5

Pace

Even

66 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: IND offense

	IND off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #6	28.4 #30	IND
Yards / play	5.40 #12	5.46 #22	IND
EPA / play	−0.05 #18	+0.07 #30	IND
Success rate	40% #25	48% #31	IND

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #25	28.6 #32	CAR
Yards / play	4.28 #31	5.34 #20	IND
EPA / play	−0.14 #27	0.00 #21	IND
Success rate	39% #26	44% #21	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.6 #9	7.1 #14	12.8 #10	5.3 #6	7.3 #8	12.5 #5
CAR allowed	2.9 #4	9.7 #32	12.6 #22	6.7 #30	9.1 #31	15.9 #32

CAR scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	3.9 #19	5.6 #23	9.4 #24	1.7 #31	7.0 #11	8.7 #25
IND allowed	6.5 #29	9.3 #30	15.8 #32	5.4 #23	6.8 #21	12.1 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.