Saints @ Colts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Indianapolis Colts

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

3-4 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Indianapolis Colts

3-4 · Power #21

final

Closing spread

NO -2

✓ NO W

Total

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 29–27 IND

✓ NO (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -2

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNO -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -2

Total44

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 2-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NO won 38–27; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 44, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 2.5; 44.6 points a game (usually 45.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-1	30–26	W	O43
Very close	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	6–23	L	U43
Very close	NE @ ARI 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	27–13	W	U44
Close	TB @ CLE 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	17–23	L	U42
Close	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-3	13–32	L	U45.5
Close	BAL @ NO 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	27–13	W	U45.5
Close	SF @ DAL 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	33–41	L	O45.5
Close	LV @ CLE 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	16–14	L	U42
Close	NO @ WSH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	33–22	W	O43.5
Close	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-3	20–17	P	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO –––LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
IND –––LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: NO away, as favorite; IND home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO –––UO	1-1	50%	3-4
IND –––OO	2-0	100%	3-4

Went over in Q3. Of 5 earlier overs in games with totals 41–47, 0% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 7	3-4 43%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
INDlast 7	3-4 43%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 6–2 IND NO leads · 8 games since 2001 · NO has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.8 →+0.5▼ 0.3#14

IND−3.9 →−0.5▲ 3.4#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

IND

#23

Offense

IND better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ NO better

#17

+0.4 #10

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−0.3 #18

71 plays #3

Pace

Even

67 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: IND defense

	NO off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #21	27.3 #30	NO
Yards / play	4.62 #28	5.02 #11	IND
EPA / play	−0.07 #20	−0.05 #12	IND
Success rate	40% #22	43% #16	IND

When IND has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	IND off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #7	18.1 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.38 #13	4.76 #5	NO
EPA / play	−0.07 #18	−0.15 #4	NO
Success rate	40% #25	38% #2	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.7 #14	5.1 #24	9.9 #21	4.1 #16	5.0 #25	9.1 #22
IND allowed	6.4 #29	8.6 #24	15.0 #30	5.1 #23	6.3 #17	11.4 #24

IND scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.4 #11	6.3 #19	11.7 #15	6.0 #4	7.3 #11	13.3 #4
NO allowed	3.3 #7	5.3 #4	8.6 #5	1.9 #4	7.7 #24	9.6 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.