Falcons @ Titans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Tennessee Titans

Weather at kickoff73°F7 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Atlanta Falcons

4-3 · Power #24

final

Final

Tennessee Titans

2-4 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

✓ TEN W

Total

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

ATL 22–20 TEN

✗ ATL (59%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2.5

Total35

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseATL -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close35

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2.5

Total35

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 2.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TEN won 28–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 35, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 53%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.1 against an average line of 1.8; 37.9 points a game (usually 46.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DEN @ LAR 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & total	-1.5	14–51	L	O36.5
Close	DEN @ CAR 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-1	10–23	L	U36
Close	TEN @ HOU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-1.5	17–10	W	U39.5
Close	WSH @ CHI 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-1	12–7	W	U37.5
Close	LV @ CHI 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	12–30	L	O37.5
Close	MIA @ NO 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	20–3	W	U37.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Loose	NO @ CAR 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form & spread	-3	14–22	L	U41
Loose	SF @ CHI 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	33–22	W	O40
Loose	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-1.5	22–17	W	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL –––LW	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1
TEN ––––L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: ATL away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL –––UU	0-2	0%	4-3
TEN ––––U	0-1	0%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATLlast 7	4-3 57%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
TENlast 6	2-4 33%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ATL 2–5 TEN TEN leads · 7 games since 1999 · TEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL+2.1 →−0.7▼ 2.8#19

TEN−0.8 →−1.4▼ 0.6#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ATL

Longer bar = better

TEN

#23

Offense

Even

#23

Defense

◀ ATL better

#19

−1.0 #29

Turnovers

TEN better ▶

−0.3 #21

66 plays #9

Pace

◀ ATL faster

56 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #29	19.5 #11	TEN
Yards / play	5.13 #17	5.38 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.11 #25	+0.01 #24	Even
Success rate	42% #19	44% #20	Even

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	TEN off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #25	19.0 #9	ATL
Yards / play	5.11 #18	4.76 #4	ATL
EPA / play	−0.07 #19	−0.08 #9	ATL
Success rate	38% #28	39% #4	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	3.4 #21	3.1 #31	6.6 #29	2.3 #28	7.6 #9	9.9 #19
TEN allowed	4.2 #16	6.5 #13	10.7 #14	4.0 #17	4.8 #11	8.8 #12

TEN scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	2.5 #25	6.7 #17	9.2 #22	5.0 #8	2.7 #31	7.7 #28
ATL allowed	3.3 #7	8.6 #24	11.9 #19	3.9 #14	3.3 #2	7.1 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.