Vikings @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

4-4 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

4-4 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

ATL -4.5

✓ MIN W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

MIN 22–25 ATL

✗ ATL (64%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -4.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseATL -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close37.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -4.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 4.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 31–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 37.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 4.2; 38 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA vs CLE 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–20	P	O38.5
Very close	MIA vs NYJ 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & total	-4	11–6	W	U37
Close	CLE vs BAL 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-3	13–3	W	U38.5
Close	CLE vs PIT 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	29–17	W	O38
Close	LAR vs DAL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	10–22	L	U41.5
Close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	16–17	L	U40
Close	ATL vs TB 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	30–17	W	O40.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	28–14	W	O39.5
Close	DEN vs LAC 2022 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–28	L	O39

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN ––WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	1-0
ATL ––LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN ––UUU	0-3	0%	4-4
ATL ––UUO	1-2	33%	4-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINlast 8	4-4 50%	3-0 100%	0-3 0%
ATLlast 8	4-4 50%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 9–6 ATL MIN leads · 15 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN−0.3 →+0.6▲ 0.9#13

ATL+2.1 →−0.7▼ 2.8#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MIN

Longer bar = better

ATL

#11

Offense

◀ MIN better

#23

#16

Defense

ATL better ▶

−0.6 #28

Turnovers

Even

−0.9 #30

62 plays #20

Pace

ATL faster ▶

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #14	20.1 #14	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #5	4.87 #7	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #12	−0.06 #13	Even
Success rate	44% #14	39% #3	ATL

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	ATL off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #28	20.3 #15	MIN
Yards / play	5.14 #18	4.97 #10	MIN
EPA / play	−0.11 #25	−0.05 #14	MIN
Success rate	42% #19	45% #24	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	2.5 #28	8.1 #9	10.6 #20	6.9 #3	4.4 #28	11.3 #9
ATL allowed	3.8 #11	8.4 #23	12.1 #16	4.3 #19	3.8 #5	8.0 #7

ATL scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	3.4 #21	2.8 #31	6.1 #30	2.8 #25	8.4 #3	11.1 #10
MIN allowed	3.4 #7	6.5 #14	9.9 #8	7.0 #31	3.4 #3	10.4 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.