Titans @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Thu, Nov 2, 2023, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff38°F6 mphgusts 11DryCold Over 55% of 98 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

3-4 · Power #27

final

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-3 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

PIT -3

✓ PIT W

Total

Push · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

TEN 20–23 PIT

✓ PIT (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -3

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePIT -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close36

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePIT -3

Total36

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 3-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PIT won 20–16; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 36 points landed on 36, as in 0 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.8 against an average line of 2.9; 34.2 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	16–24	L	O37
Very close	NYG vs CHI 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	20–12	W	U39
Very close	PIT vs LV 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	13–10	W	U37.5
Very close	PIT vs BAL 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-2	14–16	L	U36.5
Very close	CHI vs HOU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	23–20	P	O39.5
Close	NYJ vs JAX 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	3–19	L	U36.5
Close	TEN vs HOU 2022 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-3	14–19	L	U34
Close	CLE vs PIT 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	29–17	W	O38
Close	LAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	17–27	L	O38.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar total & spread	-2	13–16	L	U35.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN –––LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1
PIT W––WL	2-1	67%	0-1	—

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN –––UO	1-1	50%	3-4
PIT U––UU	0-3	0%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENlast 7	3-4 43%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
PITlast 7	4-3 57%	2-1 67%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TEN 10–11 PIT PIT leads · 21 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−0.8 →−1.6▼ 0.8#22

PIT−7.9 →−2.5▲ 5.4#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TEN

Longer bar = better

PIT

#21

Offense

◀ TEN better

#29

#19

Defense

Even

#20

−0.3 #22

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+1.0 #3

57 plays #30

Pace

Even

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #23	21.0 #18	PIT
Yards / play	5.19 #15	5.61 #28	TEN
EPA / play	−0.05 #17	−0.07 #12	PIT
Success rate	39% #27	44% #21	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: TEN defense

	PIT off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	16.1 #29	20.0 #13	TEN
Yards / play	4.58 #28	5.35 #21	TEN
EPA / play	−0.17 #28	0.00 #22	TEN
Success rate	38% #31	44% #20	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.1 #25	6.7 #18	9.9 #21	5.3 #6	3.3 #29	8.6 #25
PIT allowed	6.1 #27	6.0 #8	12.1 #17	4.4 #20	4.4 #8	8.9 #10

PIT scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.0 #28	4.4 #27	6.4 #29	4.7 #10	5.0 #24	9.7 #18
TEN allowed	4.0 #14	5.6 #6	9.6 #7	4.3 #19	6.1 #17	10.4 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.