Giants @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Las Vegas Raiders

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New York Giants

2-6 · Power #30

final

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

3-5 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

LV -3

✓ LV W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

NYG 19–22 LV

✓ LV (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -3

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLV -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLV -3

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 3-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LV won 30–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 38.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 2.9; 41.5 points a game (usually 46.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs HOU 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	31–32	L	O37.5
Very close	CHI vs HOU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	23–20	P	O39.5
Very close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Very close	LV vs NE 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	21–17	W	U40.5
Close	NE vs NYJ 2020 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	28–14	W	O40.5
Close	CAR vs PIT 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–24	L	O37
Close	NYG vs CHI 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	20–12	W	U39
Close	IND vs WSH 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	16–17	L	U40
Close	PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread	-3	20–24	L	O41.5
Close	NYG vs WSH 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	20–19	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG ––WWP	2-0-1	100%	1-0	2-0-1
LV LWWLL	3-5	38%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; LV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG ––UUU	0-3	0%	2-6
LV UUUOU	1-6	14%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 35% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYGlast 8	2-6 25%	2-0-1 100%	0-3 0%
LVlast 8	3-5 38%	3-5 38%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYG 5–3 LV NYG leads · 8 games since 2001 · NYG has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−9.1 →−4.4▲ 4.7#32

LV0.0 →−3.8▼ 3.8#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

NYG

Longer bar = better

#32

Offense

LV better ▶

#25

#21

Defense

Even

#24

−0.3 #20

Turnovers

◀ NYG better

−1.0 #32

66 plays #9

Pace

◀ NYG faster

58 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: LV defense

	NYG off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	11.9 #32	23.4 #22	LV
Yards / play	4.06 #32	5.21 #18	LV
EPA / play	−0.21 #32	+0.02 #25	LV
Success rate	38% #31	46% #29	Even

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #30	23.4 #23	NYG
Yards / play	4.63 #28	5.58 #28	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #28	−0.03 #18	NYG
Success rate	43% #15	43% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	1.1 #32	4.1 #30	5.3 #31	3.8 #19	2.9 #29	6.6 #30
LV allowed	5.0 #22	8.4 #24	13.4 #26	6.0 #28	4.0 #5	10.0 #13

LV scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.9 #18	4.5 #27	8.4 #26	1.6 #32	5.8 #18	7.4 #29
NYG allowed	5.9 #28	6.8 #15	12.6 #23	5.8 #26	4.6 #10	10.4 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.