Cowboys @ Eagles: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sun, Nov 5, 2023, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Philadelphia Eagles · Division game

Weather at kickoff64°F8 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

5-2 · Power #3

final

Final

Philadelphia Eagles

7-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

✓ PHI W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 25–28 PHI

✓ PHI (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePHI -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 3.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 28–23; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 3.4; 46.5 points a game (usually 46.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLE vs ARI 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–37	L	O48.5
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	24–27	L	O47
Very close	TB vs LAR 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	24–27	L	O47.5
Very close	LAR vs ARI 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	34–11	W	U48.5
Very close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	ARI vs IND 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–22	L	U48
Very close	PHI vs SF 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–7	W	U44.5
Very close	BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	19–17	L	U47.5
Very close	BAL vs DET 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	38–6	W	O43.5
Very close	DAL vs PHI 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	40–34	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL –––WW	2-0	100%	1-0	—
PHI L–LWP	1-2-1	33%	1-1	1-2-1

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL –––UO	1-1	50%	5-2
PHI O–UUO	2-2	50%	7-1

Went over in Q4. Of 11 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 18% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DALlast 7	5-2 71%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%
PHIlast 8	7-1 88%	1-2-1 33%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 26–29 PHI PHI leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+9.1 →+4.1▼ 5.0#3

PHI0.0 →+4.0▲ 4.0#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

DAL

Longer bar = better

PHI

#10

Offense

PHI better ▶

Defense

◀ DAL better

#16

+0.9 #5

Turnovers

◀ DAL better

−0.4 #24

65 plays #12

Pace

PHI faster ▶

70 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	28.1 #2	21.5 #19	DAL
Yards / play	5.20 #14	5.20 #16	Even
EPA / play	+0.03 #10	−0.03 #17	DAL
Success rate	44% #12	42% #13	Even

When PHI has the ball

Even matchup

	PHI off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #3	17.1 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #9	4.97 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.08 #4	−0.18 #3	Even
Success rate	46% #6	42% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	8.6 #1	10.3 #3	18.9 #1	3.6 #20	5.7 #19	9.3 #21
PHI allowed	3.0 #5	8.4 #24	11.4 #14	2.1 #4	8.0 #28	10.1 #14

PHI scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	6.1 #7	7.6 #14	13.8 #8	6.4 #4	7.5 #6	13.9 #4
DAL allowed	4.1 #15	6.0 #8	10.1 #9	2.6 #7	4.4 #6	7.0 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.