Rams @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

3-4 · Power #9

final

Final

Dallas Cowboys

4-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

DAL -7

✓ DAL W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 22–29 DAL

✓ DAL (73%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -7

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDAL -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -7

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 7-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 43–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 6.9; 48.2 points a game (usually 47.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NE vs TEN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	36–13	W	O43.5
Very close	LAR vs CHI 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	24–10	W	U44
Very close	GB vs LAR 2020 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	32–18	W	O45
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	26–17	W	O42.5
Very close	TB vs LAC 2020 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	38–31	L	O42
Very close	SF vs LAC 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-8	22–16	L	U45.5
Very close	GB vs SF 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	10–13	L	U47.5
Close	NE vs LV 2020 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-7	36–20	W	O47
Close	BAL vs CIN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-6	17–41	L	O46
Close	CIN vs BAL 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	41–21	W	O43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR –––WL	1-1	50%	—	—
DAL ––––W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: LAR away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR –––UU	0-2	0%	3-4
DAL ––––U	0-1	0%	4-2

Went over in Q3. Of 6 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 0% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LARlast 7	3-4 43%	1-1 50%	0-2 0%
DALlast 6	4-2 67%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 5–8 DAL DAL leads · 13 games since 2002 · DAL has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+7.8 →+1.1▼ 6.7#11

DAL+9.1 →+2.7▼ 6.4#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

LAR

Longer bar = better

DAL

#10

Offense

Even

#12

#16

Defense

DAL better ▶

−0.3 #20

Turnovers

DAL better ▶

+1.0 #4

65 plays #11

Pace

Even

65 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #16	16.7 #4	DAL
Yards / play	5.58 #10	4.99 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #5	−0.19 #2	Even
Success rate	45% #9	42% #9	Even

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #5	20.1 #15	DAL
Yards / play	5.05 #20	5.20 #17	Even
EPA / play	+0.01 #11	−0.02 #19	DAL
Success rate	44% #12	43% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	5.3 #12	6.0 #20	11.3 #17	4.9 #9	5.1 #24	10.0 #16
DAL allowed	4.3 #17	6.0 #8	10.3 #11	1.7 #3	4.7 #9	6.3 #3

DAL scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	7.2 #2	9.3 #7	16.5 #3	3.7 #20	5.5 #22	9.2 #21
LAR allowed	2.9 #6	6.4 #12	9.3 #7	4.0 #17	6.9 #21	10.9 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.