Cowboys @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Mon, Oct 16, 2023, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Los Angeles Chargers

Weather at kickoff75°F10 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

3-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

2-2 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

✓ DAL W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 28–27 LAC

✓ DAL (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -1.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDAL -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseDAL -1.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 1.5-point road favorite at LAC, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 20–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 2.2; 52.9 points a game (usually 45.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	GB @ MIN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	31–34	L	O47.5
Close	DAL @ MIN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-2	40–3	W	U48.5
Close	LAR @ MIN 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar total & season form	-3	30–23	W	O48.5
Close	NE @ IND 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar spread	-1	17–27	L	U46.5
Close	LAR @ ARI 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-3	38–28	W	O48.5
Close	KC @ SF 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-1	44–23	W	O49
Close	IND @ HOU 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-3	26–20	W	U50.5
Close	LAR @ SF 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	16–24	L	U51.5
Close	SEA @ MIN 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	17–30	L	U53.5
Close	BUF @ TEN 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	16–42	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL –––––	0-0	—	—	—
LAC –––W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: DAL away, as favorite; LAC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL –––––	0-0	—	3-2
LAC –––U	0-1	0%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DALlast 5	3-2 60%	0-0 —	0-0 —
LAClast 4	2-2 50%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 3–5 LAC LAC leads · 8 games since 2001 · LAC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+9.1 →+4.2▼ 4.9#6

LAC−2.1 →−0.6▲ 1.5#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

DAL

Longer bar = better

LAC

#12

Offense

LAC better ▶

Defense

◀ DAL better

#27

+1.2 #4

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #2

66 plays #11

Pace

LAC faster ▶

67 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #6	26.0 #25	DAL
Yards / play	4.95 #19	5.88 #30	DAL
EPA / play	0.00 #10	+0.03 #26	DAL
Success rate	44% #12	47% #28	DAL

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #5	16.6 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.80 #4	5.10 #13	LAC
EPA / play	+0.11 #4	−0.20 #2	Even
Success rate	47% #6	43% #15	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	7.2 #2	10.6 #6	17.8 #2	4.4 #12	4.6 #25	9.0 #22
LAC allowed	3.5 #13	8.3 #23	11.8 #18	6.0 #26	7.5 #24	13.5 #28

LAC scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	6.0 #9	11.3 #2	17.3 #4	3.5 #21	6.8 #14	10.3 #16
DAL allowed	3.8 #14	7.2 #17	11.0 #16	1.4 #3	4.2 #8	5.6 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.