Commanders @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sun, Oct 15, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

2-3 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

3-2 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

✓ WSH W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 19–22 ATL

✗ ATL (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseATL -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseATL -2.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 2.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 24–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 41.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 53%

Favorite covered

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 44%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3.1 against an average line of 2.9; 42.5 points a game (usually 46.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CHI vs DET 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	30–34	L	O44
Very close	IND vs PIT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	17–24	L	O39.5
Very close	CAR vs ATL 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	21–29	L	O42
Very close	DEN vs IND 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	9–12	L	U42
Very close	CAR vs WSH 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	21–27	L	O43
Very close	PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	20–24	L	O41.5
Very close	DEN vs LV 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	16–22	L	U41.5
Very close	TB vs LAR 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	16–13	P	U42.5
Close	WSH vs NYG 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3	20–23	L	P43
Close	NO vs LAR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	27–20	W	O39

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLWL	2-3	40%	2-0	2-1
ATL –––––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH U––OO	2-1	67%	2-3
ATL –––––	0-0	—	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSHlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	2-1 67%
ATLlast 5	3-2 60%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 5–7 ATL ATL leads · 12 games since 2003 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH+0.4 →−3.3▼ 3.7#26

ATL+2.1 →−1.4▼ 3.5#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WSH

Longer bar = better

ATL

#20

Offense

Even

#23

#26

Defense

ATL better ▶

−1.0 #27

Turnovers

ATL better ▶

−0.6 #22

64 plays #16

Pace

Even

64 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	WSH off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #17	19.2 #9	ATL
Yards / play	5.03 #20	4.84 #8	ATL
EPA / play	−0.09 #23	−0.07 #10	ATL
Success rate	42% #21	40% #4	ATL

When ATL has the ball

Even matchup

	ATL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #27	32.0 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.92 #22	5.89 #29	ATL
EPA / play	−0.11 #25	+0.11 #30	ATL
Success rate	42% #17	43% #12	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.4 #20	5.4 #23	8.8 #24	3.6 #19	9.4 #3	13.0 #7
ATL allowed	2.6 #7	8.6 #24	11.2 #16	4.0 #15	4.0 #5	8.0 #6

ATL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	2.0 #27	3.2 #29	5.2 #30	2.6 #26	8.8 #6	11.4 #11
WSH allowed	8.8 #32	8.6 #24	17.4 #31	3.4 #14	10.6 #31	14.0 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.