Sun, Oct 15, 2023, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Closing spread
DET -3.5
✓ DET W
Total
42.5
▼ Under · 26 pts
Model before kickoff
DET 23–20 TB
✓ DET (63%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
Opennot available
CloseDET -3.5
Total42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseDET -3.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close42.5
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
Opennot available
CloseDET -3.5
Total42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
DET as a 3.5-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: DET won 20–6; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 42.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 57%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 44%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 46%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 3.5; 48 points a game (usually 46.7). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  CIN @  TEN2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation |
-2.5 | 20–16 | W | U42.5 |
| Very close |  BAL @  JAX2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest |
-3.5 | 27–28 | L | O43.5 |
| Close |  IND @  CHI2020 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread |
-3 | 19–11 | W | U43 |
| Close |  LAR @  MIA2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest |
-3.5 | 17–28 | L | U46 |
| Close |  TB @ CHI2020 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 19–20 | L | U44 |
| Close |  DAL @  PHI2021 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & spread |
-4 | 51–26 | W | O45.5 |
| Close |  BUF @  NE2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total |
-5.5 | 24–10 | W | U44 |
| Close | NE @  CAR2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total |
-3.5 | 24–6 | W | U42 |
| Close | BAL @  CLE2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation |
-3 | 47–42 | W | O45.5 |
| Close | DAL @ TB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread |
-3 | 31–14 | W | U45.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Wind 15 mph
Outdoor NFL games with 15 mph wind at kickoff have stayed under the total more often than the market allows for. · Backtest 2023–26: 57-46 (55%)
Small sample warning
Detroit Lions have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DETlast 5 | 4-1 80% | 0-0 — | 0-0 — |
| TBlast 4 | 3-1 75% | 0-0 — | 0-0 — |
Recent meetings
The series
DET 10–11 TB
TB leads · 21 games since 1999 · DET has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
DET+1.7 →+4.9▲ 3.2#5
TB+0.3 →+0.7▲ 0.4#14
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5
DETLonger bar = better
TB#6
Offense
◀ DET better#20
#10
Defense
Even#8
+0.2 #14
Turnovers
TB better ▶+1.8 #1
66 plays #9
Pace
◀ DET faster62 plays #22
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When DET has the ball| DET off | TB def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 29.6 #4 | 17.0 #8 | Even |
| Yards / play | 5.81 #5 | 5.04 #10 | DET |
| EPA / play | +0.07 #8 | −0.13 #7 | Even |
| Success rate | 47% #8 | 42% #8 | Even |
When TB has the ball| TB off | DET def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 21.0 #21 | 21.4 #15 | DET |
| Yards / play | 4.88 #24 | 4.69 #6 | DET |
| EPA / play | +0.01 #10 | −0.10 #9 | Even |
| Success rate | 40% #25 | 42% #11 | DET |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
DET scoring against the TB defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET scored | 9.0 #1 | 8.8 #9 | 17.8 #2 | 2.8 #25 | 9.0 #3 | 11.8 #10 |
| TB allowed | 3.3 #9 | 5.8 #9 | 9.0 #8 | 3.0 #11 | 5.0 #12 | 8.0 #7 |
TB scoring against the DET defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB scored | 1.5 #28 | 8.5 #10 | 10.0 #20 | 3.5 #20 | 7.5 #12 | 11.0 #12 |
| DET allowed | 2.0 #5 | 5.4 #6 | 7.4 #5 | 4.2 #19 | 8.6 #28 | 12.8 #26 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
TB +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
75° · 15 mph
gusts 27 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
DET7d
TB14d bye
TB +7 days
Tempo
Average 128 plays
slowavg 127fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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