Saints @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sun, Oct 15, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

3-2 · Power #11

final

Final

Houston Texans

2-3 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

NO -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

NO 25–24 HOU

✗ NO (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -2.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNO -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseNO -2.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 2.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: HOU won 20–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 53%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 2.1; 42.6 points a game (usually 46.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA @ BUF 2020 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	26–56	L	O42.5
Close	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & total	-2	6–23	L	U43
Close	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	30–26	W	O43
Close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Close	NE @ CAR 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–6	W	U42
Close	MIA @ NO 2021 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	20–3	W	U37.5
Close	BAL @ NE 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	37–26	W	O45
Close	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Loose	LV @ CLE 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar spread & total	-2.5	16–14	L	U42
Loose	NE @ MIA 2020 · Week 15 · loose · similar total & season form	-1	12–22	L	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO –––––	0-0	—	—	—
HOU –––––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: NO away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO –––––	0-0	—	3-2
HOU –––––	0-0	—	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOlast 5	3-2 60%	0-0 —	0-0 —
HOUlast 5	2-3 40%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 3–3 HOU Series tied · 6 games since 2003 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO+0.8 →−1.4▼ 2.2#16

HOU−2.2 →+3.7▲ 5.9#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

HOU

#25

Offense

HOU better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ NO better

#17

+0.6 #12

Turnovers

HOU better ▶

+1.0 #8

66 plays #11

Pace

Even

67 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	NO off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #22	20.0 #11	HOU
Yards / play	4.39 #29	5.41 #20	HOU
EPA / play	−0.08 #21	−0.03 #15	HOU
Success rate	39% #28	44% #22	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	HOU off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #11	15.2 #5	NO
Yards / play	5.35 #13	4.52 #4	NO
EPA / play	−0.01 #12	−0.20 #3	NO
Success rate	40% #26	36% #2	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	4.6 #16	6.0 #20	10.6 #17	4.6 #11	4.0 #27	8.6 #24
HOU allowed	5.6 #24	2.8 #2	8.4 #7	6.8 #26	4.8 #9	11.6 #20

HOU scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.4 #13	6.2 #18	11.6 #13	2.0 #28	9.4 #3	11.4 #11
NO allowed	1.8 #5	3.4 #3	5.2 #1	0.6 #1	9.4 #28	10.0 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.