Texans @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Carolina Panthers

Weather at kickoff78°F11 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

3-3 · Power #13

final

Final

Carolina Panthers

0-6 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

✓ CAR W

Total

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 26–22 CAR

✗ HOU (63%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -3.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHOU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHOU -3.5

Total43

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 3.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CAR won 15–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 43, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 3.5; 38.6 points a game (usually 46.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CAR @ NYG 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-3	3–25	L	U42.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2021 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	20–16	W	U45
Close	JAX @ HOU 2022 · Week 17 · close · similar total & team ratings	-4.5	31–3	W	U43.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	7–13	L	U45
Close	SF @ NYG 2020 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-3	36–9	W	O44
Close	BAL @ PIT 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-4	19–20	L	U44
Close	LAC @ DEN 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	30–31	L	O44.5
Close	NO @ ATL 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-4	30–20	W	O40
Close	MIA @ DEN 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	13–20	L	U46
Close	NE @ ARI 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar total	-2	27–13	W	U44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU ––––W	1-0	100%	—	—
CAR ––––L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU ––––U	0-1	0%	3-3
CAR ––––O	1-0	100%	0-6

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 25% of games with totals 40–46 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 6	3-3 50%	1-0 100%	0-1 0%
CARlast 6	0-6 0%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 2–5 CAR CAR leads · 7 games since 2003 · CAR has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−2.2 →+0.5▲ 2.7#13

CAR−2.1 →−3.3▼ 1.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

HOU

Longer bar = better

CAR

#16

Offense

◀ HOU better

#26

#18

Defense

◀ HOU better

#30

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.5 #25

66 plays #10

Pace

CAR faster ▶

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #14	31.0 #31	HOU
Yards / play	5.29 #14	5.67 #27	HOU
EPA / play	−0.01 #13	+0.09 #31	HOU
Success rate	40% #23	49% #31	HOU

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	CAR off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #23	18.8 #8	HOU
Yards / play	4.38 #30	5.43 #21	HOU
EPA / play	−0.14 #27	−0.02 #20	HOU
Success rate	40% #24	46% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.7 #8	6.8 #16	12.5 #11	2.2 #29	7.8 #6	10.0 #16
CAR allowed	3.3 #9	10.2 #32	13.5 #25	6.8 #29	10.7 #32	17.5 #32

CAR scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	4.5 #17	5.5 #23	10.0 #20	1.0 #31	7.7 #8	8.7 #23
HOU allowed	5.8 #26	2.8 #1	8.7 #6	6.2 #27	4.0 #6	10.2 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.