Patriots @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

Weather at kickoff84°F15 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

2-5 · Power #29

final

Final

Miami Dolphins

5-2 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -7.5

✓ MIA W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 21–29 MIA

✓ MIA (76%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -7.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMIA -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMIA -7.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 7.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 7.9; 49 points a game (usually 47.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR vs SEA 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar total & spread	-7	20–10	W	U47
Close	IND vs CIN 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–27	L	O45.5
Close	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5
Close	GB vs CHI 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	41–25	W	O45
Close	GB vs PHI 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	30–16	W	U50
Close	SF vs ATL 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	31–13	W	U48
Close	PIT vs CIN 2020 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	36–10	W	U46.5
Close	PHI vs WSH 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	34–31	L	O44.5
Close	PHI vs NYG 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-8	38–7	W	U48
Close	GB vs WSH 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	24–10	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE –––LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1
MIA –––WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE –––UO	1-1	50%	2-5
MIA –––OU	1-1	50%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NElast 7	2-5 29%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
MIAlast 7	5-2 71%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NE 29–25 MIA NE leads · 54 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	Miami Dolphins 24 @ New England Patriots 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE0.0 →−2.9▼ 2.9#26

MIA+2.1 →+2.9▲ 0.8#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

MIA

#27

Offense

MIA better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ NE better

#23

−1.0 #31

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

−0.4 #24

62 plays #19

Pace

◀ NE faster

60 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	14.4 #31	26.7 #27	Even
Yards / play	4.74 #26	5.19 #16	MIA
EPA / play	−0.18 #30	0.00 #21	MIA
Success rate	41% #20	46% #27	NE

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #1	25.3 #24	MIA
Yards / play	7.67 #1	4.81 #6	MIA
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	0.00 #22	MIA
Success rate	52% #1	42% #10	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.3 #27	4.3 #29	6.6 #29	1.9 #30	6.0 #16	7.9 #27
MIA allowed	6.4 #29	8.6 #24	15.0 #30	3.9 #14	7.9 #26	11.7 #26

MIA scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	5.9 #6	13.3 #1	19.1 #1	7.9 #2	7.3 #11	15.1 #2
NE allowed	5.6 #24	8.9 #28	14.4 #27	2.7 #9	8.1 #27	10.9 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.