Eagles @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sun, Oct 29, 2023, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Washington Commanders · Division game

Weather at kickoff75°F2 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

6-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

3-4 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

PHI -7

Push

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 29–22 WSH

✓ PHI (74%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -7

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePHI -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePHI -7

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 7-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: PHI won 38–31; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 42.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 7.2; 40.9 points a game (usually 47.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO @ PHI 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-8	21–24	L	O42.5
Very close	LAR @ WSH 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	30–10	W	U45
Very close	SF @ JAX 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	30–10	W	U45.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	48–22	W	O44
Very close	DAL @ WSH 2022 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	6–26	L	U41
Very close	TB @ PIT 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	18–20	L	U46.5
Very close	IND @ HOU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–0	W	U45
Very close	GB @ CHI 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	24–14	W	U44
Very close	BAL @ NE 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	17–23	L	U44
Very close	TB @ ARI 2022 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	19–16	L	U42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI –L–LW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
WSH LWLWL	3-4	43%	0-3	3-1

Venue/role: PHI away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI –O–UU	1-2	33%	6-1
WSH –OOUU	2-3	40%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 7 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 14% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHIlast 7	6-1 86%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
WSHlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PHI 35–21 WSH PHI leads · 56 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2023	Washington Commanders 31 @ Philadelphia Eagles 34	PHI -8.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI0.0 →+4.2▲ 4.2#4

WSH+0.4 →−3.3▼ 3.7#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

PHI

Longer bar = better

WSH

Offense

◀ PHI better

#24

#11

Defense

◀ PHI better

#24

−0.3 #19

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #16

71 plays #2

Pace

◀ PHI faster

63 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #4	27.1 #29	PHI
Yards / play	5.49 #11	5.69 #28	PHI
EPA / play	+0.06 #6	+0.04 #26	PHI
Success rate	47% #7	42% #11	Even

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: PHI defense

	WSH off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #20	20.1 #14	PHI
Yards / play	4.75 #24	4.92 #9	PHI
EPA / play	−0.10 #24	−0.05 #13	PHI
Success rate	40% #26	41% #8	PHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	6.6 #4	7.7 #11	14.3 #7	6.3 #3	5.6 #21	11.9 #7
WSH allowed	7.3 #31	8.6 #24	15.9 #32	2.4 #7	8.4 #29	10.9 #19

WSH scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	2.9 #23	5.9 #22	8.7 #24	4.6 #11	6.7 #13	11.3 #9
PHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.1 #22	10.6 #13	2.4 #7	7.1 #22	9.6 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.