Raiders @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sun, Oct 1, 2023, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

1-2 · Power #23

final

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

1-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

LAC -6.5

✓ LAC W

Total

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 26–32 LAC

✓ LAC (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -6.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAC -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAC -6.5

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 6.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LAC won 24–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 49, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 6.6; 53.1 points a game (usually 47.4). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Very close	ARI vs PHI 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	33–26	W	O49.5
Very close	CIN vs LV 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & spread	-6	26–19	W	U49
Close	GB vs DET 2020 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	42–21	W	O51
Close	MIN vs DAL 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-7	28–31	L	O50
Close	LV vs CHI 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	9–20	L	U46
Close	NO vs LAC 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar total & spread	-7	30–27	L	O48.5
Close	LAC vs JAX 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-7.5	39–29	W	O48
Close	LAC vs PIT 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	41–37	L	O47.5
Close	DAL vs DET 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-7	24–6	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1
LAC –––	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV U–U	0-2	0%	1-2
LAC –––	0-0	—	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LVlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%
LAClast 3	1-2 33%	0-0 —	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 22–33 LAC LAC leads · 55 games since 1999 · LV has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV0.0 →−1.8▼ 1.8#20

LAC−2.1 →+0.6▲ 2.7#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

LAC

#19

Offense

LAC better ▶

#27

Defense

Even

#29

−2.3 #32

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+1.0 #9

54 plays #31

Pace

LAC faster ▶

68 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: LV offense

	LV off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	29.0 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #12	6.56 #31	LV
EPA / play	−0.07 #19	+0.10 #27	LV
Success rate	44% #13	47% #28	LV

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAC offense

	LAC off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #5	25.7 #24	LAC
Yards / play	6.10 #3	5.43 #23	LAC
EPA / play	+0.15 #4	+0.12 #29	LAC
Success rate	51% #4	48% #30	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	7.0 #7	2.0 #31	9.0 #22	0.0 #32	6.0 #19	6.0 #30
LAC allowed	2.3 #7	11.0 #30	13.3 #23	7.0 #26	7.7 #23	14.7 #27

LAC scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.7 #13	9.3 #6	15.0 #8	4.7 #14	9.0 #7	13.7 #7
LV allowed	6.7 #26	9.0 #24	15.7 #28	5.7 #22	4.3 #12	10.0 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.